The biggest event on the football calendar, the FIFA World Cup, is already underway. Everybody got their predictions, but we also wanted to know whether a computer - specifically, a video game - can predict the outcome of the playoffs and guess who’ll ultimately win the World Cup.
We set up our PlayStation 5, loaded up a game, and were ready to go.
Setting up the World Cup on PlayStation 5
To create this simulation, we used the best football sim on the market - FC26 by EA Sports. The game was updated with the latest rosters and standings, alongside national teams that participate in the World Cup.
Matches were set to 5 minutes per half, and the CPU was set to World Class. Every match was played on the same stadium, with perfect weather conditions, and, of course, no player was controlling any of the teams, so the matches were CPU vs CPU.
All other rules followed the current official World Cup format. That includes extra time and a penalty shootout in case of a tie.
The Tournament Is On!
Once we’d had everything set up, it was time to run the simulated matches and see how the game’s vast database and statistics convert into a possible real-world scenario.
We started from the official Round of 32, and it went like this:
- South Africa - Canada 0:1
- Netherlands - Morocco 0:0 (3:4 penalties)
- Germany - Paraguay 0:1
- France - Sweden 7:1
- Belgium - Senegal 0:0 (3:4 penalties)
- USA - Bosnia and Herzegovina 3:0
- Spain - Austria 1:0
- Portugal - Croatia 1:0
- Brazil - Japan 2:0
- Côte d'Ivoire - Norway 1:2
- Mexico - Ecuador 1:0
- England - DR Congo 1:0
- Switzerland - Algeria 1:0
- Colombia - Ghana 1:1 (3:4 penalties)
- Australia - Egypt 0:3
- Argentina - Cabo Verde 1:0
In the Round of 16, the results were:
- Canada - Morocco 2:0
- Paraguay - France 1:3
- Senegal - USA 0:2
- Spain - Portugal 0:1
- Brazil - Norway 2:0
- Mexico - England 0:1
- Switzerland - Ghana 1:0
- Egypt - Argentina 0:2
The quarterfinals of our simulated World Cup:
- Canada - France 0:1
- USA - Portugal 0:3
- Brazil - England 1:2
- Switzerland - Argentina 0:2
Who Will Win the World Cup?
When we started this experiment, one of the goals was to see whether this video game’s simulations match up with predictions of tipsters and veteran bettors.
According to FC26, these teams will play in the semifinals of the World Cup: France, Portugal, England, and Argentina. This prediction nearly matches what experts say. Aside from Portugal, all other teams are dominating the outright odds markets.
Going back to the simulation in FC26, the France - Portugal match ended with a 0-2 win for Portugal, while the game between England and Argentina ended in a 2-2 stalemate, followed by a 3-4 penalty shootout.
The final showdown between Portugal and Argentina was a 0-0 game that went into extra time and, ultimately, ended with penalties. There, Portugal took the victory and the title of the World Cup champion with a 5-4 score.
So, that’s what the simulation through a video game has to say. We’ll see in the upcoming weeks how precise it was.
If you’re looking for a second computer-based opinion, we are currently running a competition between leading AI models. And, if you’re interested in making some bets yourself, be sure to visit our Football Planet promotion page and grab yourself a few exclusive betting offers.
