Time flies when you are having fun, and after the drama of the first two days of the Cheltenham Festival, we have reached the halfway point.
On day three of the Cheltenham Festival, staying is the name of the game as the Grade 1 Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle takes centre stage. But before that, the highly anticipated Ryanair Chase goes to post, where once Gold Cup hopeful Fact To File takes the step down in tip to try to make it back-to-back Cheltenham Festival wins.
Grade 2 Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle - 2m1f (4yo+) (new course)
The first shock on day three of the Cheltenham Festival happened well before the 24 mares took to the track as Paul Townend chose to ride AURORA VEGA over Maughreen, and I believe Paul may have made the right decision.
She's 3/4 over hurdles, and her only defeat came when she was pulled up at odds of 1/10 at Wexford, but it was clear from a long way out that she was not right on the day. Since then, Aurora Vega has won back-to-back races at Fairyhouse, including an impressive Grade 3 win. Given Willie Mullins's record in the mares races at the Cheltenham Festival, expect to see a big performance from this daughter of Quevega.
Sixandahalf has her clear chance after a facile win on her hurdles debut, as does Maughreen and the maiden Galileo Dame.
At bigger odds, Art Of Entitlement showed a massive improvement at Down Royal in December when beating the now Grade 3 Ballybow and is not to be underestimated.
- Selection: Aurora Vega 9/1 (e/w)
- Danger: Galileo Dame 11/2
Grade 2 ack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase - 2m4½f (5yo+) (new course)
Nurburgring has been the talking horse for this race in the lead-up to the Cheltenham Festival, but he has a lot of questions to answer, given his price. Yes, he is the Galway Hurdle winner and looks to have room to work with off this mark, but given that he was well-backed on his last run at Leopardstown, he could only manage a desperate 9th-place finish.
The classy FIREFOX could have lined up in the Arkle Novices' Chase but is taking his chance here.
Having won on chase debut, Firefox went on to be an unlucky 3rd in the Drinmore Novices' Chase when sent off an EVS money favourite. He dropped back down to 2m in the Racing Post Novice Chase, where he didn't have the gears to go with Ile Atlantique, but still managed a clear 2nd and was then behind Majborough at the Dublin Racing Festival.
The step back up to 2m4f will be in his favour, and I expect a big run from him today.
Others to note are Pic Roc, course and distance winner Moon D'Orange, and Cadwell Potter, who would enter the picture if the ground eased.
- Selection: Firefox 8/1 (e/w)
- Danger: Pic Roc 12/1 (e/w)
Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle - 3m (5yo+) (new course)
JP McManus has a strong hand in this year's Pertemps with Jeriko Du Reponet and the Padraig Roche-trained WIN SOME LOSE SOME, and he is the one I will be siding with here.
This progressive 6-year-old has run nine times in his short career, winning four, with the latest of those four wins coming when stepping up to 3m for the first time in the Pertemps qualifier at Leopardstown. He hit the front after jumping the last and shot clear, only to idle when hitting the front, but he won with much more authority than the winning margin would suggest. Off a mark of 138, Win Some Lose Some will prove a lot better than his mark.
D Art D Art finished a good 2nd in December at Carlise and has been put away for this ever since. One Big Bang and Lucky Lyreen, who was an eye-catching 3rd last time at Leopardstown, are interesting at bigger prices.
- Selection: Win Some Lose Some 8/1 (e/w)
- Danger: Lucky Lyreen 20/1 (e/w)
Grade 1 Ryanair Chase - 2m4½f (5yo+) (new course)
It's disappointing that we don't get to see last year's Arkle winner, Gaelic Warrior, line up here today. But we still have a high-class clash to look forward to as Fact To File, the French raider Il Est Francais, and the defending champion Protektorat line up in what should Ryanair run at a blistering pace.
If Fact To File can show the form that saw him get the better of Spillanes Tower and Galopin Des Champs, then he will prove hard to beat. But, on the back of two defeats to the latter named in the Savills Chase and Irish Gold Cup, where he could only manage to finish 3rd, and looked to be feeling the effect of trying to get the better of Galopin Des Champs.
Il Est Francais has only one way of running, and that is flat out from the front. He finished 2nd in the King George in December, but this test will be different. If taken on up top, he could spit the dummy out, and that's before knowing if he will act around Cheltenham. There are too many worries with the French raider to trust at the prices.
This race has a habit of producing back-to-back winners, and it can be a case of Deja Vu with the defending champion, PROTEKTORAT.
Even at the age of 10, Protektorat looked better than ever when running away with Fleur De Lys Chase at Windsor in January, beating Djelo (he has won since). Given his record around Cheltenham, it's hard to see Protektorat being out of the top three.
- Selection: Protektorat 13/2 (e/w)
- Danger: Fact To File 5/4
Grade 1 Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle - 3m (4yo+) (new course)
Teahupoo will set out to add his name to the list of duel winners of the Stayers Hurdler and has a massive chance of doing so. But he isn't bombproof. He wasn't at his best when well beaten by Lossiemouth in the Hattons Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse, and that is a slight worry when he is targeted for two races a season.
The Wallpark has been highly progressive this season, and if he can take another step forward here, he may be able to put it up to his stablemate. But, the one I want to side with is the 10-year-old HOME BY THE LEE.
This season, he has looked the best version of himself when beating Bob Olinger over 2m4f, a trip well short of his best, and followed that up with a strong staying performance to beat the same rival over 3m in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown.
Now that trainer Joseph O'Brien has managed to unlock the secret to Home By The Lee's talent, there is every reason to believe that he can turn over Teahupoo, who is only rated 3lb better.
This 5-year-old Rocky's Diamond was 3rd behind Home By The Lee and Bob Olinger in the Christmas Hurdle but has since taken a big step forward when comfortably taking the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle at Gorwan Park on Thyestes Day. He will need another sizable step forward today, but this light-raced gelding has time on his side.
Another to note is last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2nd, Mystical Power, who is stepping up to 3m for the first time. If he can get back on track today, it has enough ability to trouble the ones at the top of the market.
- Selection: Home By The Lee 6/1
- Danger: Teahupoo 5/4
TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase - 2m4½f (5yo+) (new course)
Last year's winner, Shakem Up'arry, is back to defend his title, but he has not been at his best in his two runs this season. But there is every reason to believe that this has been the long-term plan for the Harry Rednapp-owned gelding. Even off just 2 lbs higher than when taking this last year, it will prove hard for this 11-year-old to hold off his younger rivals.
And one of the younger rivals that has a standout chance is JAGWAR.
Currently, he is 3/4 over fences; Jagwar comes in here on top of his game after a win over course and distance last time out. He has been put up 7 lb for that win, and given his running style, there is sure to be more in the locker. He jumps and travels well in big fields, and today, Jagwar can give his young trainers another day to remember at the Cheltenham Festival.
Jordans of Joseph O'Briens flew home behind Impaire Est Passe in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novices Chase at Limerick. If that was not a fluke, this consistent novice chaser should have more than enough ability to play a part in the finish of 148.
- Selection: Jagwar 9/2
- Danger: Jordans 10/1
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase - 3m2f (5yo+ 0-145)
The amateurs get their first chance of the week to shine in the Kim Muir.
Last season, we saw one of the biggest Cheltenham Festival gambles in living memory as Inothewayurthinkin was sent off 13/8 and won like a future Grade 1 horse, which he has since proven to be.
JP McManus has the favourite again this year in the shape of Johnnywho, but for all that he looks well in here off a mark of 139, he is a horse that has yet to convince that he wants to put it all in. And at his current odds, it's advisable to look elsewhere.
Git Maker, who was a clear 2nd to Inothewayurthin in this race last season, can play a big part in finishing off just a 1 lb higher and is not one to overlook. But the one I will be siding with is MIDNIGHT OUR FRED.
Trained by John Flavin, Midnight Our Fred has been better than ever this season. An 8-length win at Gorwan Park in October was followed by a 2nd place finish to the rejuvenated Perceval Legallios in the Paddy Power chase. He also has course form to fall back on, where he has managed three 2nd place finishes in three visits to Cheltenham.
Given that he has looked as good as ever, and there is a probability of a lot more improvement to come, Midnight Our Fred can make it fourth time lucky at Cheltenham.
- Selection: Midnight Our Fred 9/1 (e/w)
- Danger: Git Maker 16/1 (e/w)
