Another mouth-watering tie at the World Cup with the super-efficient Spain up against a Belgium team that has been on a rollercoaster ride so far this tournament.
We have the latest team news, some trivia and stats before our resident tipster, fresh from a 4.0 winner last time out, gives you his best bet ahead of this one.
La Roja to Go Through in a Slow-Burner
Spain has beaten Belgium in their last five games and is yet to concede in this World Cup, so those are two key stats suggesting Spain will win this game. More to the point, despite Belgium’s heroics in getting this far, it’s Spain who have looked much the better team.
This game could go a similar way to the Spain vs Portugal one, a slow-burner with a second-half goal, or it could be that Spain scores earlier and protects what they have by keeping the ball. But either way, it’s unlikely to have too many goals in it, so bet accordingly.
- Key Stat: Spain has beaten Belgium in each of the last five times they played them. Since 2004, they beat them 2-0, 2-0, 2-1, 5-0 and 2-0. In those last two wins. Former Manchester City man David Silva scored four goals across the last two of those wins.
- Best Bet: Spain to win and under 3.5 goals
- Odds: 2.38 (at the time of writing)
Spain
Spain has been unstoppable since that first game against Cape Verde that resulted in a shock 0-0 draw, winning their next four: 4-0 against Saudi Arabia, 1-0 against Uruguay, 3-0 against Austria and just about getting the better of Portugal on Monday night, winning that one 1-0.
That same defence never really looked in any trouble in their clinical 1-0 win against Portugal, where they also showed another string to their bow: that they have players on the bench who can come on and change a match, in this case Arsenal’s Mikel Merino, who scored a 90th-minute winner with a well-taken strike.
Last time out, we asked when Lamine Yamal is really going to come to the party, and the answer to that question is ‘not yet’ He was a bit quiet again on Monday, while Mikel Oyarzabal missed a couple of good chances when they came to him.
But the above is splitting hairs because this is an excellent all-around team that is going to be very hard to stop.
- Player to watch: Mikel Oyarzabal – 1.83 to score or assist / 6.5 to score 2 or more goals.
Belgium
It’s remarkable that Belgium’s name is still in the World Cup draw.
We’ve discussed this in greater detail in our World Cup Week in Words column, but (spoiler alert) they’ve overcome: a must-win Group game, being 2-0 down with 15 minutes left on the clock in a knockout match, an uncalled-for intervention by Donald Trump and their own choice to leave out two of their star players against the USA. But here they are.
A week and a half ago, this was a side that looked like it was going nowhere. Tired legs in midfield, no game plan for how they were going to score and at one stage, there was almost a physical fight between another Arsenal man, Leandro Trossard and captain Youri Tielemans on the pitch in that game against Senegal.
All that is in the past now, but they’re well aware this is by far their toughest assignment to date.
Benfica winger Dodi Lukebakio has been a good addition to the side and striker Charles de Ketelaere scored two the other day, so the star trio of Kevin de Bruyne, Jeremy Doku and Romelu Lukaku are likely to be on the bench again.
- Player to watch: Leandro Trossard– 5.5 to score / 6.5 to have 2 or more shots on target.
Did you know?
Romelu Lukaku’s three goals in the tournament aren’t nearly enough to have him in contention for the Golden Boot, but he’s only been on the pitch for 242 minutes to score them, averaging a goal every 80 minutes. Spain’s Oyarzabal has four goals but needed 435 minutes to score them, an average of a goal every 108 minutes.
