It’s been a long, old tournament, but also an excellent one with a bit of everything.
We’re down to the last two, and as we’ll explain in a minute, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that this is the last pair standing.
So, for the last time, here’s the team news, some trivia and our final betting tip in what has been a profitable tournament for our readers who have been following our betting suggestions.
Spain vs Argentina: All Square After 90 Minutes
- Key Stat: Five of the last nine finals have been draws at full-time. Spain won in extra time in 2010 and Germany in extra time in 2014, while Brazil, Italy and Argentina went on to win on penalties in 1994, 2006 and 2022, respectively.
- Best Bet: Draw
- Odds: 3.0 (at the time of writing)
We shouldn’t be too surprised that these two are contesting the final.
Before the World Cup started, Argentina were Number 1 in the FIFA rankings, Spain were Number 2. Spain were the defending European champions, Argentina the defending world champions.
Though both teams function well as a unit, they each have a left-footed superstar who makes things happen: Messi for Argentina, Lamal for Spain. To take things to the next level: Yamal is Messi’s long-term successor at Barcelona, the Spaniard breaking into the Barca side just two years after Messi left for PSG.
Spain has only ever made one final (2010), and it was a draw at 90 minutes, before they won it in extra time. The last two finals Argentina contested, in 2014 and 2022, were both draws at full-time. As we’ve just seen, five of the last nine finals needed extra time and, in some cases, penalties.
So you should be able to guess what’s coming next. There really isn’t too much to choose between them, and neither will want to take unnecessary risks in 90 minutes that they don’t need to.
If there’s little or nothing to choose between them, then a draw at 3.0 may just be what we end up with.
Spain
That 0-0 draw against Cape Verde seems like a long time ago now. Spain huffed and puffed but couldn’t get past keeper Vozinha despite having seven shots on target, a performance from the Cape Verde stopper that helped earn him the ’Everyone’s Favourite Hero’ award in our Ask Gamblers Awards given out earlier today.
But that’s the only match Spain have failed to score in, or win in 90 minutes for that matter, since.
They won their next four, including against Iberian rivals Portugal in the last 32, not conceding in any of them, before going on to beat Belgium 2-1 last Friday and then tournament favourites France 2-0 on Tuesday.
Though Lamine Yamal is already a superstar of the present and certainly also one of the future, and Rodri was voted Euro 2024 Player of the Tournament, this is a team far more about the sum of the parts than one relying on individual talent.
Organised and disciplined in defence, brilliant at keeping the ball in midfield and with Lamal and Mikel Oyarzabal in attack, never looking too far away from scoring, they tick every box. That’s why they’re in the final, and that’s why they’re the favourites to win the final.
- Player to watch: Mikel Oyarzabal: 2.5 to score / 2.2 to score or assist.
Argentina
Ahead of their semi-final against England, we made the point that Argentina had done things the hard way in their knockout matches. And the trend certainly continued in that match against England.
With just 15 minutes to go, they were 1-0 down to Anthony Gordon's goal and on the verge of exiting at the semi-final stage before Lionel Messi played a short ball to Enzo Fernandez on the edge of the box, who fired it into the top corner to level the scores.
But with the wind in their sails, Argentina weren’t playing for extra-time and with the clock about to run out, Messi went on a run down the right flank and his cross was met by sub Lautaro Martinez, leaving England stunned and without time to get an equaliser.
So, their route to the final has been far from straightforward, the way Spain’s has been, but they’re in the final now, and none of that will matter if they go all the way.
There’s a great sense of unity among this team, and they enjoy playing together, but it’s impossible to deny that they probably wouldn’t be here without Messi, who, somewhat unsurprisingly, picked up the Ask Gamblers Player of the Tournament Award.
- Player to watch: Lionel Messi: 1.8 to score or assist / 9.0 to score 2 or more goals.
Did you know?
The fact that Argentina made the final by beating England in the semis was always on the cards.
They had previously contested five semi-finals – in 1930, 1986, 1990, 2014 and 2022* – and won the lot, so when they beat England on Wednesday, they made it six from six.
Looking at the six finals they’ve contested so far*, they won three and lost three.
*They also made and won the final in 1978, but in that case, they didn’t contest a semi; instead, it was by virtue of winning the second Group Stage.
