Real Madrid hosting Villarreal looks like a game destined to have goals in it if the stats are anything to go by, but Real should win it eventually. Read on for team news, head-to-head numbers, other stats, and our top betting tip for the game.
Betting Tip: Real Madrid to win and over 3.5 goals @2.1
Real scored 18 goals in seven games and conceded eight. Villarreal have scored 13 and conceded 12, so neither side is likely to play a low-scoring match where caution is the order of the day.
Also, when this game was played last year, it ended 3-1 to Real and two years ago it was 4-1, so you can see the history of high-scoring games here.
So four or more goals in the game look like a mere formality, but the price isn’t great, with most bookies going 1.7 or 1.75 at best.
So, the best way to get to an odds-against price is to add the Real win to the equation.
- Bet: Back Real to win and over 3.5 goals
- Odds: 2.1 (at the time of writing)
Real have won all three of their last home games against Villarreal, as well as their last two away meetings, beating them 2-0 last season and 2-1 the season before that, so they have the upper hand in this fixture, taking all three points in five of their last six against the ‘Yellow Submarine’.
Ideally, we’d like Mbappe to start here as it’s virtually impossible to argue that the potential for goals doesn’t go up with him on the pitch, but even without him, or only from the bench, the likes of Vinicius Jr, Jude Bellingham and Arda Guler are more than capable of scoring goals between them while we’re well aware that Villarreal could come up with at least one of their own.
This game looks like it should be full of goals once again, with Real ultimately winning it.
Real Madrid
Jose Mourinho will be relatively happy with a start in his second spell as Real Madrid manager, where he’s won five out of seven games in La Liga and also secured an important win over Inter Milan (2-1) in the Champions League.
But two things will make him less happy. First, while his side dropped points at Betis and Atletico Madrid, rivals Barcelona won all seven, meaning Real are already trailing the Blaugrana by six points with just two months of the season gone. Points that won’t be easy to recover.
And secondly, he won’t be particularly happy that star man Kylian Mbappe picked up an injury on France duty; the former Monaco and PSG man may however be available to play here against Villarreal, though probably not from the start.
Either way, you can see that this is a team that looks more disciplined, hard-working and organised than this time last year, and that’s down to Mourinho and his meticulous planning.
Villareal
As for Villarreal, two wins, two draws and three defeats is about par for the course and the ninth place they occupy in the table is probably where they’d have expected to be at this stage of the season. Former Arsenal man Nicolas Pepe and midfielder Pape Gueye have been among their most important players so far, and both will be expected to play big roles in this game.
Villarreal matches are far from dull; five of their seven games so far in La Liga have gone over 3.5 goals and their only match in Europe so far – a 3-2 defeat at Dortmund in the Champions League- was also full of goals, so there’s no reason to think that things are going to be any different this time round.
Did You Know?
The town of Villarreal has a population of just 57,000 people, yet their football team has been right up there with some of the biggest clubs from the biggest European cities in terms of achievements, including making a Champions League semi-final and winning the Europa League in 2021, beating Manchester United, no less, on penalties, 11-10.
In that one, with all outfield players having already scored, Man Utd goalkeeper David de Gea eventually missed his penalty, handing Villarreal their first-ever major trophy.
Fun Fact: In the 2022/2023 season, these two met twice in four months, in a Cup match and a league match, with both games finishing 3-2. Even more bizarre than that repeat of an unlikely score was the fact that the away side won both times: Real won 3-2 on the road in the Cup, only for Villarreal to win 3-2 in Madrid.
