This is a fascinating contest between two teams who have faced each other plenty of times over the last few years and look extremely well-matched.
Portugal go in as favourites, as you’d expect, but there’s a strong trend for this being a ‘both teams to score’ match. Keep reading for all the stats, facts and analysis ahead of this mouth-watering game.
Betting Tip: Portugal - Croatia
This could be a tougher match for Portugal than the odds suggest. Croatia never give an inch and will make favourites Portugal work hard if they’re to progress.
All in all, these are two well-matched teams, and it would be no surprise if this ended 1-1 and extra time was required to split them.
But what we can’t ignore is that all of the last six between these two had goals at both ends, so that’s what we might get again. A 2-1 or 3-1 Portugal win could also be on the cards, and if that’s what happens, that would do us just fine, too.
- Prediction: Both teams to score YES
- Odds: 1.7 (at the time of writing)
- Key Stat: These two have played each other six times in the last eight years. All those matches ended with both teams scoring; the matches ended with two 1-1 draws, a Portugal win by 2-1, one Portugal win by 3-2 and a Croatia win by 2-1.
Portugal
Inconsistency has been the keyword for Portugal’s performances so far this campaign. There was a disappointing result in that 1-1 draw with DR Congo first up and a bit of a lacklustre performance in their 0-0 draw in their third group game against Colombia, in stark contrast to their second game, a comfortable 5-0 win over Uzbekistan, where they looked extremely good.
As ever, Portugal’s problem is turning possession into clear-cut chances and goals. Few teams can pass it around as they can, but there’s a slight lack of pace in this side and too much build-up rather than genuine attempts at goal.
All eyes on Cristiano Ronaldo. He’s never scored a goal in a World Cup knockout match across five previous World Cups, and that’s certainly something he’d like to cross off his CV before he calls it a day. Bruno Fernandes hasn’t been at his absolute best yet and they’ll be hoping for a big performance from him in such a crucial match.
- Player to watch: Bruno Fernandes - 3.3 to score / 3.6 to have 2 or more shots on target.
Croatia
Croatia has been everything you would have expected Croatia to be so far: hard-working, physical, aggressive and determined. And they’ve also shown resilience, shrugging off a 4-2 loss to England first up before coming back to win their next two matches and progress relatively easily.
Remarkably, the man at the heart of it all is still Luka Modrić. Remarkably, because he’s 40 years old and was already playing at World Cups back in 2006.
Alongside him will be Manchester City man Mateo Kovacic, whose greater physicality complements Modrić’s technical ability to perfection.
The slight problem they have is not really having a proven prolific goal scorer, so a set-piece or a counter-attack may be their best chance of a goal here.
- Player to watch: Luka Modric - 3.75 to score or assist / 7.0 to be shown a card.
Did you know?
These two teams contested a knockout game at Euro 2016, a tournament that Portugal went on to win. It ended 0-0 after 90 minutes before a late Ricardo Quaresma goal won it for Portugal towards the end of second-half extra time.
All of Modric, Ivan Perisic, Andrej Kramaric, and Ronaldo featured in that match and 10 years later, are still around to play in this one.
