Italy start life under new coach Roberto Mancini in a big Nations League game in Rome against a Belgian side that had a decent World Cup but is rebuilding, though veterans Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne are still around for now. Read on for some stats, the head-to-head record between these two, a fun fact and that all-important betting tip.
Betting Tip: Italy to Win with a Belgium Goal in There
Belgium had a mixed World Cup that included a lukewarm Group Stage with two draws and a win over New Zealand, a come-from-behind 3-2 win against Senegal when they looked all but out, and a fine 4-1 win over hosts the USA, before a 2-1 exit at the hands of eventual winners Spain, no disgrace there.
Veterans Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku have decided to stay on and play for their country for a bit longer rather than retiring from international football, and both have been included in the squad here, but neither is the player they were from a few years back.
At least Belgium were at the World Cup. Italy, winners of Euro 2020 no less, failed to make it to the tournament after a playoff defeat on penalties to Bosnia. After much discussion over who should take over as coach, with Pep Guardiola and Andrea Pirlo among the names mentioned, they went back to Roberto Mancini, who guided them to that Euros win a few years ago.
If historical trends are anything to go by, Mancini will be happy to face Belgium. Not only have the Italians won 16 of 25 in all games between them, but they have lost just one of the last eight since 2000, winning six and drawing the other two 2-2 in 2024.
It may pay to take the view that a change in coach, a home match and facing a side they’ve beaten more often than not is a good recipe for Mancini starting his second spell as Italy coach with a win. You can get odds of 2.1 on the straight win, but it may be worth being a bit more ambitious than that.
Clean sheets have surprisingly been a problem for Italy of late, given their reputation for fierce defending, but conceding four against Israel and Norway, as well as against Estonia, in the last year doesn’t paint a pretty picture.
Besides, two of their last three wins against Belgium were by 2-1, an 8.0 chance on the correct score market. Further fuel for the theory that Belgium should score here is that they scored in five of their six World Cup games.
The best way to play this is an Italy win with both teams scoring, available at 3.0.
- Prediction: Italy to win and BTTS Yes
- Odds: 3.0 (at the time of writing)
Did You Know?
Only 8 players in the history of Belgium’s national team have got to 100 appearances, and three of them – Thibaut Courtois (115), De Bruyne (124) and Lukaku (132) - may be in action in this game, though they’ve all got some catching up to get to the 157 appearances of Jan Vertonghen.
Italy, coincidentally, also have eight players who have reached 100 caps, but none of them will be playing in this match.
Gianluigi Donnarumma has 83 caps for Italy at age 27 after 10 years with the national team. If he were to play at the same rate for another 10 years - quite possible, seeing as he’s a goalkeeper – he’d come very close to overtaking the great Gianluigi Buffon, who holds the record with 176 games for Italy.
