The Champions League kicks off next week, so now is the time to look at the top goalscorer market, where the cream of the cream of Europe’s strikers are all looking to top the scoring charts. But what is the profile of a CL top scorer, and who is the best bet to win it this year?
Who Are the Favourites?
No surprise that it’s Kylian Mbappé leading the betting at 4.5. He was last season’s top-scorer in this competition with 15, albeit just one ahead of Harry Kane with 14.
For good measure, he followed that up with the small matter of 15 goals at the World Cup, two clear of Messi, proving that an elite player like him will score goals at the highest level, regardless of the opposition or anything else.
Then it’s Harry Kane at 8.0, a runner-up last year as we know and a man who had a decent World Cup with six goals, followed by Manchester City's Erling Haaland at 9.0.
They're followed by Ousmane Dembele at 13.0, the star striker of a PSG team who has won the last two editions of the competition and may go very close again this year.
Best Bet: Back Harry Kane
We’ve talked you through the favourites, and it’s hard to disagree with Kylian Mbappe being the favourite.
But it may be worth siding with Harry Kane of Bayern instead at a bigger 8.0. He has an outstanding record of scoring in the Champions League. Also, he has the added advantage of being very much the main man for Bayern in terms of goals, where Real tend to share their goals around a bit more, with the likes of Vinicius and Jude Bellingham also scoring a few.
He was just one goal shy of the Frenchman last year but could go one better this time around, especially with Bayern almost always making the last four, or better.
What It Takes to Win
This isn’t an easy market to crack, but here are some absolute ‘musts’ when it comes to compiling a profile for a potential winner, plus a couple of bonus qualities that improve their chances.
Must-haves:
- A proper out-and-out striker as opposed to an attacking midfielder who scores goals. With the exception of Messi at Barcelona at the time and Raphinha in 2024-25, who was more of a wide forward, they’ve all been proper number 9s.
- Almost guaranteed to start every match, barring injury and suspension, as opposed to being players who are rotated and often start on the bench.
- Players whose team is expected to at the very least make the quarter-finals and, better still, favourites to make the semis, or final. After all: the more matches you play, the better your chances.
- Has a proven track record of scoring goals in the Champions League. It’s one thing to score, say 30 goals a season in the Portuguese Superliga, but scoring 10+ in this competition, the minimum to be in contention, is a very different kettle of fish.
Good to have:
- Plays for a side that not only has a chance of going deep in the competition but also one that tends to score lots of goals, increasing the chances of your selection racking up the goals. Think Bayern Munich, Barcelona, PSG or Real Madrid.
- Takes penalties. Last season, Mbappe won it with 15 goals, of which three were penalties. Runner-up Kane, who scored 14, benefited from four goals coming from the penalty spot. Given this is a tight betting heat, adding 3-4 goals through taking penalties could make all the difference in the world.
- Has a good record when it comes to avoiding injuries. Players like Haaland, Kane and Mbappe all seem to stay clear of injuries over the course of the season, so you can almost count on them to be fit for every game, which again, makes a big difference.
Fun Fact
The record for the most CL goals in a single CL campaign belongs to Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored 17 in 2013-14.
He came close to beating his own record with 16 in 2015-16 and then again with 15 in 2017-18, all for Real Madrid, with Kylian Mbappe also of Real Madrid, coming close with 15 last season.
