Match for the 4th round of the Bundesliga, at PreZero Arena, home of Hoffenheim.
What We Know
- Hoffenheim’s recent home record vs Bayern in the league: 4-1-4.
- Bayern have scored at least three goals in each of their last five Bundesliga away games.
- Luis Díaz has scored in each of his first three Bundesliga games for Bayern. No player in the club’s history has ever scored in the first four.
Betting Tip Hoffenheim - Bayern
Normally, Bayern games away from home scream goals, and Hoffenheim rarely keep clean sheets. But with the champions entering their first busy stretch of the season and rotation issues mounting, caution is advised. We’ll pass on this one until I see how Bayern handle the increased workload.
- Prediction: BTTS
- Odds: 1.58 (at the time of writing)
Hoffenheim
Union Berlin’s physical style gave them plenty of problems, yet Hoffenheim still came away with a 4-2 win thanks largely to Union’s individual errors. The key moment was a penalty in stoppage time of the first half (45+1), quickly followed by a second goal two minutes later. With that cushion, Ilzer’s side could sit deeper and exploit the spaces on the break.
That makes it two wins from two on the road this season, with their only setback the 1-3 home defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt. Goals aren’t an issue as they’ve already scored seven. Aslani and Lemperle are combining well in attack, while Toure’s pace and ability one-on-one add valuable creativity from midfield.
Where they fall short is in central midfield, which hasn’t contributed as much creatively as hoped, and defensively, particularly on the flanks. There’s still clear room for improvement, but given the early stage of the project, they’re moving in the right direction.
Against Bayern, Hoffenheim know that scoring is non-negotiable. This is, after all, a team that has conceded in 37 of their last 38 Bundesliga home matches. If they make it 37 in 39, nobody will be surprised.
Bayern
Their 5-0 demolition of Hamburg was over by the 29th minute, when they were already 4-0 up. After that, they eased off, rested key starters (Upamecano, Gnabry, Kane) and mentally shifted focus to Chelsea, their midweek Champions League opener.
With European fixtures returning, Bayern enter a stretch of relentless midweek-weekend football. For Vincent Kompany, the challenge will be managing fitness rather than rotating, because depth is thin.
Goretzka and Pavlovic alternate as Kimmich’s partner, Jackson is still settling in as Kane’s understudy, and Karl is the only realistic attacking rotation option.
At full-back, Stanisic is covering at left-back, while Laimer can fill in on either side. In central defence, Tah and Upamecano are irreplaceable. Kim is available, but not fully trusted. Until Davies, Musiala and Ito return, Kompany will need to rely on small tweaks and makeshift solutions to keep the squad fresh.
