Match for the 4th round of the Bundesliga, at WWK Arena, home of Augsburg.
Facts
- Absolute balance in this fixture in recent years: nine wins each and two draws in their last 20 meetings.
- Augsburg’s home record vs Mainz is 11-4-5. The last six clashes all finished with a goal for each team, and the last eight all had over 2.5 goals.
- Mainz also went winless in their first three league games last season. Their first victory came on Matchday 4, a 3-2 away at Augsburg.
Betting Tip: Augsburg - Mainz
Augsburg’s attempt to play more proactively, even if only in flashes so far, combined with Mainz’s urgent need to break their winless streak, fits well with the goal-heavy tradition of this match. The Over 2.5 is available at an above-average Bundesliga price, which in itself adds value. This is our recommended pick.
- Prediction: Over 2.5
- Odds: 1.82 (at the time of writing)
- Stake: 3
Augsburg
Back-to-back defeats now for Sandro Wagner’s team. After the 2-3 home loss to Bayern came a deserved 1-2 loss away at St Pauli. Defensive flaws were expected against the champions, but in Hamburg, they were more worrying. The hosts created a large number of chances and could easily have scored more.
The mission this season is to evolve their playing style: to stop being a slow, cautious, conservative side. But perhaps the transition is happening a bit too suddenly. At Millerntor, they attacked with more intent but often lacked the final pass and left themselves exposed at the back. In the opening two games, they were more pragmatic.
Sunday was the first real glimpse of Wagner’s new vision, and it showed there’s still work to be done.
He is now considering whether to finally field a traditional centre-forward. So far, he has used attacking midfielders across the front line. The St Pauli match was a reminder that sometimes, tactical adjustments are necessary.
Mainz
Missing three key attacking players against Leipzig left them toothless. The first half was a shootout of chances, but Mainz failed to convert any, while Leipzig needed just one to settle the game 0-1. After the break, facing a low defensive block, they simply had no idea and did not create a single chance.
Bo Henriksen’s side remains winless (0-1-2), with only one goal scored, a penalty by Amiri at Wolfsburg. They are not playing badly. The core principles are still there, but finishing is a serious problem. Injuries and suspensions are part of the excuse, but with a packed schedule this year, Mainz must find solutions.
As Amiri bluntly put it after the Leipzig defeat: “We just don’t have the quality. Last year we had Burkardt.”
Of the three absentees, one returns here: Nebel, who has served his suspension. His comeback is welcome, as being without him, plus the still-injured Lee and Hollerbach, has clearly limited Mainz’s attacking options.
