The Ballon d’Or is the ultimate individual prize in football, and previous winners read like a who’s who of the world’s greatest-ever players: Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Ronaldinho, Luis Figo, Zinedine Zidane, Michel Platini, Ruud Gullit, and Roberto Baggio.
This year, there is very much a front-runner, but there’s also a handful of other contenders who all have more than a sporting chance. Let’s talk you through them.
Harry Kane (Bayern Munich/England)
Even by his own very high standards when it comes to scoring goals, Kane had a ridiculous season in which he scored 36 Bundesliga goals, 10 in the German Cup and 14 in the Champions League, just one fewer than Kylian Mbappe.
And he wasn’t slowing down when he put on his England shirt, scoring five in World Cup qualifiers, one in a friendly and six at the actual World Cup as he led his team to a third place after being knocked out by Argentina in the semis.
In total, he scored 73 goals in 65 appearances as he helped Bayern win a domestic treble: the league, German Cup and Super Cup, also contributing with plenty of assists and hard work off the ball.
- In Kane’s Favour: No one on the planet could match his goalscoring exploits last season, all the more remarkable when so many goals came in the Champions League and World Cup, the highest possible level.
- Against Kane: Despite an excellent start to the World Cup, Kane somewhat ran out of steam and failed to score in the quarters and semis as England were knocked out.
- Odds to win: 2.0
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona/Spain)
The teenager had a good rather than spectacular season as he helped Barcelona defend their La Liga title and reach the quarter-finals of the Champions League, where they lost to fellow La Liga side Atletico Madrid.
He was lively on that right wing all campaign and came up with 25 goals in total from 57 matches for club and country, but suffered an injury at the back end of the season that saw him miss a few games.
He never looked 100% fit at the World Cup, despite Spain going on to win it.
- In Lamal’s favour: Being a key player for the newly-crowned World Cup champions is always a good starting point.
- Against Lamal: He never quite looked himself at the World Cup after that injury and only scored one goal in eight matches despite Spain racking up 14 goals at the tournament.
- Odds to win: 3.25
Rodri (Manchester City/Spain)
Rodri was the captain and heartbeat of the Spanish side who won the World Cup for a second time in their history. Playing as a classic number 6, that involved winning the ball back, dictating play, and playing hundreds and hundreds of passes throughout the tournament, breaking all passing records in the process.
Despite playing all eight matches for Spain, he didn’t get booked once and kept his cool in the aftermath of the final as Argentinian players provoked and abused their Spanish counterparts after the final whistle, showing all his class.
All in all, it was no surprise that he won the Golden Ball award for the best player, something he had already done at Euro 2024.
- In Rodri’s Favour: He couldn’t have done more for the Spanish cause than he did and lots of weight is given to players’ outstanding contributions at the World Cup.
- Against Rodri: He didn’t have the greatest seasons for Manchester City as they lost the Premier League title to Arsenal, got knocked out early in the Champions League by Real Madrid, while Rodri got sent off in a shock defeat at Bodo Glimt, as he occasionally struggled in the biggest club games.
- Odds to win: 5.5
Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid/France)
Mbappe carried on his somewhat strange relationship with Real Madrid and the Real fans last season. On the one hand, he contributed 25 La Liga goals, 15 in the Champions League and 12 more in other competitions for a huge total of 52 for his club over the season.
On the other hand, he never looked comfortable playing alongside Vinicius Jr, got in hot water with the fans for going on holiday when injured, and at one stage was even out of the team entirely.
When the World Cup came about, he was unstoppable at the start as France looked the best team by some distance. He was on six goals after just four matches and eventually ended up with 10 to be the Golden Boot winner.
- In Mbappe’s favour: Beyond the goals, Mbappe was a joy to watch at the World Cup with barely-believable changes of pace, mazy runs, instinctive passes and other ways of terrorising opposition defences.
- Against Mbappe: In a tight game against Spain in the semis, Mbappe had his quietest game of the tournament and never got going, which cost him and his team dearly.
- Odds to win: 7.0
Lionel Messi (Inter Miami/Argentina) (Odds to win 9.0)
It would be some story if the eight-time Ballon D’Or winner made it nine, 17 years after first winning it back in 2009.
He had another good season at Inter Miami that included them winning their first-ever MLS Cup. He was MVP in that match and at one stage he scored two goals in a game in five consecutive matches.
He then joined up with Argentina for the World Cup, where Messi scored 3, 2, 1, 1 and 1 goals in his first five games, many of them crucial ones. But both he and Argentina eventually ran out of gas and were criticised for their unadventurous, safety-first approach in the final, which they lost.
- In Messi’s Favour: He'll get some votes for the way he lit up the World Cup at the age of 39 with goals, assists, pinpoint passes and other acts of genius.
- Against Messi: Not for the first time, Argentina didn’t cover themselves in glory at the World Cup with controversial celebrations, a man sent off in the final and ugly scenes after the final whistle. As captain, Messi should have intervened but didn’t, which may not go down well with the voters.
- Odds to win: 9.0
Final Verdict: Back Rodri
The captain of the last World Cup-winning side won the Ballon D’Or back in 2023: Lionel Messi, so that’s a good omen.
Rodri won the Ballon D’Or himself two years ago, and was Player of the Tournament at both the last Euros and this last World Cup, so he’s no stranger to picking up the biggest awards, proof that he’s a popular player with the voters.
It’s perfectly normal that, in a World Cup year, a lot of importance is given to how the player performed at football’s biggest event. His flawless performances across all eight games surely can’t be ignored. He has every chance at a far higher price than Kane, who may pay the price for that semi-final exit against Argentina.
Ballon d'Or ceremony will take place on 26 October, when we'll find out if our predictions were correct.
