A team you’d expect to get this far in Argentina, play one you probably didn’t expect to get this far in Switzerland, in Sunday morning’s last quarter-final.
Read on to find out why Lionel Messi shouldn’t be taking penalties for Argentina, which Swiss player is most integral to the team and what our big betting tip is ahead of this one.
Best Bet Is to Back Argentina
Argentina having scored three goals in five of their last six games suggests this one isn’t going to be 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 here. If you believe the trend will continue, you can get 4.0 about Argentina scoring three or more, and that will interest some.
But then again, Switzerland are generally a good defensive side. Only twice in the last 15 have they conceded two or more in a game: when beating Mexico 4-2 a year ago and when losing 4-3 to Germany in March.
So perhaps the best way to go about this is to back Argentina to score two or more, rather than three, at the more conservative price of 2.0.
Argentina haven’t been too good at the back themselves, so they may well need two to win the game or even just to force extra time.
- Betting tip: Argentina to score 2+ goals
- Odds: 2.0 (at the time of writing)
- Key Stat: Argentina have been in fine scoring form of late. They scored exactly three goals in four of their five games at this tournament – 3-0 against Algeria, 3-1 against Jordan and 3-2 against both Cape Verde (after extra time) and Egypt. They also beat Iceland 3-0 just before the World Cup, so that’s 5/6 where they’ve scored exactly three in a game.
Argentina
Argentina survived an almighty scare against Egypt in the previous round and can consider themselves pretty fortunate to still be in the tournament.
Things weren’t looking good at 2-0 down with just 10 minutes to go, but goals from Cristian Romero, Lionel Messi and Enzo Fernandez turned the tie around in the final stages to give them a memorable 3-2 win, a place in the quarter-finals and keep Messi’s dream alive of winning back-to-back World Cups.
Good news for them, good news for us because we had Argentina to win with both teams scoring at 4.0.
What may be forgotten in the middle of all this is that Messi missed a first-half penalty, his second miss of the tournament, making him the first player in history to miss two at the same World Cup, excluding shoot-outs.
It will be interesting to see if it’s third-time lucky if Argentina do get one here, or if he leaves penalty duties to someone else next time. It’s 2.88 that a penalty will be taken during the match, irrespective of which team gets it, or whether it’s scored.
Julian Alvarez started last time out upfront but didn’t get going, so Lautaro Martinez, who set up Fernandez’s winner. could play this time.
- Player to watch: Lionel Messi - 1.53 to score or assist/ 5.5 to score 2 or more goals.
Switzerland
Not many would have picked Switzerland to get this far, but you can see why they’re such a tough team to beat: physical, well-organised, well-coached and with some seriously experienced players in the side.
Granit Xhaka and Ricardo Rodriguez have 144 and 136 caps respectively, while a further eight players in the squad have 50 or more caps. Some of these guys have been around for a while on the international stage.
Part of the secret to their success is a strong defence that has seen them concede just three goals in five matches so far and none in either of their knockout matches.
Captain Xhaka has been immense for them, bossing the midfield with strong tackles and accurate passing, so they’ll need a big performance from him again.
- Player to watch: Granit Xhaka - 10.0 to score anytime / 3.5 to have 1 or more shots on target.
Did You Know?
If penalty conversion stats were taken into account, Messi shouldn’t be taking penalties for Argentina at all. He has a 77% strike rate over his career, but five players in the squad – Nico Gonzalez, Julian Alvarez, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis MacAllister and Leandro Paredes – all have better conversion rates than his.
In fact, the last three all have conversion rates of over 90%, considerably better than Messi.
