On to day two of the Aintree Grand National and another staked day of horse racing ahead of us. Let's have a look at the major races ahead of us this Friday.
2:20 – Grade 1 William Hill Mildmay Novices’ Chase (3m1f)
The big question in the Mildmay is not whether SALVER has the ability to win it, but whether Cheltenham has left a mark. If it hasn’t, he is the one they all have to beat.
The Gary & Josh Moore-trained six-year-old comes here off the back of a strong-finishing effort in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, where he once again found Kitzbuhel too good. There is no disgrace in that whatsoever. In fact, the more important angle here is that he is not bumping into a horse of that calibre this time around. And his Cheltenham run suggests that he has a lot more to offer.
Very little went smoothly for him. He was kicked at the start, and then had his rhythm disrupted again when hampered by a faller at the 13th. Despite all that, he still managed to make up a huge amount of ground from the home bend to the line, finishing with the kind of purpose that screams “future staying Grade 1 winner”.
This race looks likely to be run at a proper clip, and if the leaders overdo it early, Salver is exactly the type to pick up the pieces. He is strong at the finish, jumps accurately enough when in rhythm, and looks the sort who could really enjoy this long home straight if arriving there within striking distance.
The one who makes the most appeal as the danger is Gold Dancer, who shaped with plenty of credit when runner-up to the very well-handicapped Meetmebythesea in the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase, finishing ahead of Regent’s Stroll in the process. That is solid enough form, and he is entitled to be involved.
Still, if Salver has come out of Cheltenham in good order, this looks a very winnable Grade 1.
- Selection: Salver 7/2
- Danger: Gold Dancer 11/2
*Odds subject to change.
2:55 – Grade 1 ThatPrizeGuy Top Novices’ Hurdle (2m½f)
This looks like a golden opportunity for SOBER GLORY to make immediate amends for what might have been at Cheltenham.
Had he not made a costly error at the final flight in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, there is every chance he would be arriving here as a Festival winner rather than one carrying a hard-luck story. It was that kind of run. He travelled like the best horse for much of the contest, and then just got it wrong at the worst possible moment.
Even so, there was enough in that effort to suggest he sets a clear standard here, and this looks the ideal spot to put things right. Aintree should suit him well, and if he gets into the same smooth rhythm, he should take a lot of stopping.
Baron Noir is the obvious one to mention after finishing around six lengths behind the selection at Cheltenham, but there is a key difference between the two runs. Sober Glory was ridden to win, while Baron Noir was given a more patient, place-minded ride. That made sense in the context of the race, but it also means the gap between them may not tell the full story.
Still, there is no compelling reason to think the placements should be reversed here.
All things considered, this is the type of race where Sober Glory really ought to be putting his Cheltenham disappointment behind him. If he does not, it would have to go down as a missed opportunity.
- Selection: Sober Glory 8/13
- Danger: Baron Noir 9/2
*Odds subject to change.
3:30 – Grade 1 JCB Melling Chase (2m4f)
The Melling often throws up a fascinating clash of specialists, and this year’s renewal is no different, with some stepping up in trip, some dropping back, and several arriving with questions to answer.
The one with the fewest questions to answer is HEART WOOD.
Unlike plenty of these, he arrives here having already produced a top-class performance over this exact kind of distance, and what he did in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham is impossible to ignore. Yes, the late withdrawal of Fact To File changed the shape of the race, but it should not take anything away from the manner in which Heart Wood won. He did not just win, he dominated.
His ten-length demolition of Jonbon was one of the standout performances of the Festival and confirmed what many had long suspected: that he is a middle-distance specialist.
His only defeat in four starts this season came at the hands of the now Gold Cup winner, Gaelic Warrior, which is form that reads very well indeed. If he reproduces either his Cheltenham effort or his earlier Tramore win, then he is going to be very difficult to beat.
Grey Dawning is the obvious danger on form and profile, but at the prices, JPR One makes a fair bit of each-way appeal after shaping well for a long way in the Ryanair before fading late. He could easily outrun his odds again if allowed to bowl along.
- Selection: Heart Wood 13/8
- Danger: JPR One 16/1
*Odds subject to change.
4:40 – Grade 1 Oddschecker Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (3m½f)
This looks like one of the trickier Grade 1s on the card, and unlike some of the earlier races, there is no shortage of plausible contenders. It’s competitive, and it is deep.
It is interesting that Harry Cobden is on Talk To The Man, and naturally, that will catch the eye. But that does not necessarily mean he is the stable's first choice, given that Cobden is on his way to the JP McManus job.
With NO DRAMA THIS END, the key question is simple: how forgiving are you prepared to be?
Personally, he is worth one more chance.
Absolutely nothing went right for him in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, where he was sent off favourite and never really got into the race in the way many expected. But Aintree could be a very different story.
This flatter track and more measured test of stamina may suit him far better, and there is every chance he can bounce back now that he is returned to conditions that should play more to his strengths. If he is as good as many thought he was before Cheltenham, then this is a very fair opportunity to remind people.
There are dangers everywhere, mind.
Zeus Power, who finished third in the Turners, brings rock-solid form to the table, while Johnny’s Journey and Kripticjim both have enough upside to make life difficult if progressing again.
Still, for all the depth in the race, No Drama This End is the one who could easily look overpriced if forgiving one bad day.
- Selection: No Drama This End 9/2
- Danger: Zeus Power 8/1
*Odds subject to change.
