The Ballon d’Or will be awarded to the world’s best footballer on the 26th of October at the London Palladium Theatre. The competition is especially tight this year, with the World Cup allowing the nominated stars to shine internationally alongside their domestic achievements.
AskGamblers looked to the past to find the patterns in previous winners that could help predict who will be walking away with the trophy this year.
Across the past 25 years of winners (excluding 2020 when the award wasn’t given out), we looked at which clubs they played for, their positions, and which trophies they’d won during their nominated season.
Based on the common patterns, we found three main indicators: winners are more likely to play in La Liga, be a forward and have won major silverware over the season. Only one player fits that pattern this year: Lamine Yamal.
Highlights:
- 64% of winners since 2000 were playing in La Liga when they received the Ballon d’Or.
- Real Madrid was the most common club for Ballon d’Or winners, with nine playing at the club. Barcelona were next with seven, and then a major drop to AC Milan and PSG with two.
- 76% of winners since 2000 were forward players.
- 80% of winners had won a major trophy (either their domestic title, the Champions League or the World Cup).
The 2026 Nominees
La Liga Is a Winners' Ground
At the time they won the trophy, 64% of the winners since 2000 were playing in La Liga.
The most common club over that time was Real Madrid with nine winners hailing from the Spanish giant (although three of these had made the move to Madrid in the summer they won the award).
Over the same period, the club won nine La Liga titles. However, only two of the nine Ballon d’Or wins actually coincided with Real Madrid winning La Liga–Cristiano Ronaldo in 2017 and Karim Benzema in 2022. Real last won the title in 2023/24, with Barcelona winning the last two seasons.
There’s more of a pattern when we look at Champions League wins. Of the six players who had spent all of their Ballon d’Or-winning season at Real Madrid, five had won the Champions League that year. The only exception to that is Ronaldo in 2013, who won the award despite not claiming any major trophy that year.
This year’s nominees who play in La Liga: Bellingham, Cubarsí, Cucurella*, Yamal, Mbappé, Rodri* and Vinícius Jr.
*Moved to La Liga from the Premier League during the summer.
Three out of Four Ballon d’Or Winners Were Forwards
Out of the 25 years of previous winners, over three-quarters of them were forwards. Only one defender won the award, Cannavaro in 2006, and five midfielders won over the same period.
Attacking players dominate the award. There’s a relatively even split in terms of nominees this year, with 14 forwards, nine defenders and seven midfielders. However, being a high-scoring forward player is a strong selling point when it comes to winning the Ballon d’Or.
80% Won a Major Trophy That Season
Out of the 25 years of previous winners, 80% won either the Champions League, the World Cup or their domestic league. It’s the most crucial determining factor when it comes to awarding the Ballon d’Or, with only five occasions in the last 25 years where the winner had claimed none of these trophies.
Even in those cases, the player had usually won some form of silverware. For example, Michael Owen in 2001 won the UEFA Cup, FA Cup and League Cup, while Messi won the Copa del Rey in 2012 and Copa América in 2021.
It’s why players from PSG, who won the Champions League for a second year running on top of their domestic Ligue 1 title, dominate the nominations. Nine of the nominees (and Ferran Torres, who joined this summer) are from the French club, while only five nominees won no silverware at all.
This year’s nominees who haven’t claimed one of the three major trophies: Fernandes, Vinícius Jr., Mbappé, Quiñones, Haaland and Bellingham.
Lamine Yamal Is the Only Player to Fit All Criteria
If we use the patterns from the previous winners to predict who is most likely to win this year, Lamine Yamal is the standout answer. The 19-year-old is a forward who plays in La Liga and won a major trophy last season.
Barcelona won the La Liga title in the 2025/26 season, during which Yamal bagged 16 goals and 11 assists. He was also part of the Spain team that won the World Cup over the summer, giving him both international and domestic success.
In 2024, Yamal became the youngest player to be nominated for the Ballon d’Or, and he was runner-up last year. Could third time be the charm for the Spaniard?
What Goes Against Him?
While the data suggests Yamal is the strongest candidate to win the Ballon d’Or, there are a few things that might work against him.
Although he won the World Cup with Spain, Yamal only scored a single goal in the tournament, and his performance was overshadowed by the likes of Bellingham, Kane and Mbappé. Winning the World Cup doesn’t guarantee victory either, with only 50% of Ballon d’Or winners during World Cup years having claimed the trophy.
On top of that, Barcelona didn’t win in Europe last season. They were knocked out by Atlético Madrid 3-2 on aggregate in the quarter-finals.
Ferran Torres Would Have Fit All Three
Ferran Torres would have fit all three of our criteria had he not moved to PSG from Barcelona over the summer. The Spanish forward scored 16 goals last season, sharing the Zarra Trophy for the league’s top scorer with Yamal.
His most notable success this year came during the World Cup Final. Torres came on as a substitute and scored a last-minute header in the 106th minute to win Spain their second-ever World Cup. Even with his move to PSG, he remains a strong candidate to win the Ballon d’Or.
Could Kane Become the First Englishman to Win Since 2001?
The Ballon d’Or was last won by an English player in 2001 when Liverpool’s Michael Owen took home the award. This year, there are three Englishmen nominated: Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane, and the latter could be in with a real chance.
Harry Kane won the domestic treble with Bayern Munich last season, including a second Bundesliga title in a row. He was also the league’s top goalscorer for a third season in a row, equaling his own record by netting 36.
After having a remarkable season, he added six to his tally at the World Cup. Across all competitions, he scored 61 goals, becoming the first Englishman to reach 60 goals in a single season since Dixie Dean in 1927/28.
What Goes Against Him?
There’s only one real thing that could hold Kane back from winning and that’s playing in the Bundesliga. No player playing in the Bundesliga at the time of the award has won since Sammer in 1996.
Yamal Most Likely to Win According to Stats
According to the criteria of the last 25 years of winners, Lamine Yamal is the most likely to win the Ballon d’Or. He’s the only one to fit all three criteria: playing in La Liga, being a forward and having won major silverware this season.
Ferran Torres would have been the second player to fit all three if he hadn’t moved from Barcelona to PSG over the summer. Harry Kane is also a strong candidate for the trophy, after a record-breaking year with Bayern Munich.If we’re going on purely on the statistics, though, while 14 of the other candidates satisfy two of the criteria, Yamal stands alone as the only player to tick all of the boxes.
Method
- Awards from 2000 to 2025. There was no award in 2020 due to Covid-19.
- The assigned clubs are the one players are at when they win the award. If they transferred to a new club over the summer, then the data would reflect that.
- ‘Major trophies’ in this case refers to the Champions League, World Cup or domestic league title.
