This week, we’re taking a look at a critical match in the Champions League on Wednesday night between two contenders to go all the way, and the PDC World Championship in darts, as everyone tries to find a way to beat Luke Littler.
Real Madrid - Manchester City in Champions League
- Start: Wednesday, 10 December, at 20:00
- Venue: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
- Coverage: TNT Sports
- Fun fact: The bookies are right to predict goals in this one. Here are the last eight results in games between them: 3-1, 2-3, 1-1, 3-3, 4-0, 1-1, 3-1 and 4-3. A bet on over 3.5 goals would have paid out in six out of those eight.
Betting
The match odds for this are pretty much as tight as you can get in a game of football, with Real just about favourites at 2.45, while City are 2.55, and the draw is 3.8.
There’s not much to choose between these two at the best of times. Going into this match, Real (in fifth place) are two points better off than City (ninth place), who are just outside the Top 8 and direct qualification to the next round.
Goals are very much expected, with over 2.5 goals at just 1.46 and even over 3.5 goals available at 2.1.
A correct score of 2-2 is 11.0 while a dramatic 3-2 win for Real is 18.0, with 3-2 to City chalked up at 18.0.
And if there are to be goals, then who can get one? The usual suspects, of course.
Kylian Mbappe is 1.77 to score anytime, 4.0 to be the first goalscorer, the same odds as he is to be the last goalscorer.
That man Erling Haaland, who didn’t score at the weekend at home to Sunderland, is 1.91 to score. Vinicius Jr is 3.5, while Jude Bellingham, always a man for the big occasions, is 2.9.
Summary
As ever, Real Madrid and Manchester City are among the favourites to win this year’s Champions League, but in a slight sign of the times changing, they’re fifth and fourth favourites respectively at 9.0 and 10.0. That’s behind the likes of Arsenal (4.5 with Ladbrokes), Bayern Munich (6.0), and PSG (7.0).
Last time, Pep Guardiola said he regretted making so many changes when they faced Bayer Leverkusen at home. With the likes of Haaland, Jeremy Doku, Ruben Dias, and Phil Foden all rested from the start, they ended up losing 2-0. This tough match in Madrid is not exactly the best opportunity to move up the table.
With the new format, finishing outside that Top 8 could prove disastrous because teams could be paired against one of European football’s strongest sides in the next round. In the previous format, this only tended to happen from the quarter-final stage onwards.
One man likely to be paying plenty of attention to this match is England manager Tomas Tuchel.
Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden are both strong candidates to play in the number 10 role in his 4-3-3 formation when the World Cup comes about next year. While it’s not out of the question that Tuchel finds room for both of them in his team, it may come down to a straight choice. So he’ll want to see what they can do in the very most significant games, like this one.
Of the two, it’s been Foden who has been in very much the better form over the last few weeks. Bellingham has scored just once in his last eight matches for club and country and hasn’t been quite at his best. Foden, on the other hand, has been absolutely crucial to City over the past two weeks, scoring twice against Leeds as they won 3-2, twice at Fulham when they won 5-4, and once at the weekend as they beat Sunderland 3-0.
Darts PDC World Championship
- Start: Thursday, 11 December
- Venue: Alexandra Palace, London
- Coverage: Sky Sports Main Event
- Fun fact: Beau Greeves proved that it’s not impossible to beat Luke Littler in last month’s World Youth Championship, for which Littler still qualifies.
Betting
Luke ‘The Nuke’ is the Number 1-ranked player in the PDC at the age of just 18. He’s very much the man to beat here, as the odds of 1.91 clearly show.
Next up, it’s Humphries at 5.5. Then there’s a big gap in the odds to Gerwyn Price (15.0), Gian van Veen (17.0), Josh Rock (17.0) and van Gerwen (21.0).
One of the matches to look forward to in the first round is the Naill Culleton - Arne Spee game. The bookies are making Culleton the 1.36 favourite, partly on the back of being on a run of four straight wins. But Spee is very capable and not afraid to step up in big televised matches, so don’t rule him out to cause an upset here at 2.9.
Summary
This is the biggest PDC World Championship in its history, with the event having 128 players competing in it for the first time ever.
It’s not just the number of competing players that has gone through the roof in recent years. The competition has a total prize fund of £5million, with a fifth of that (£1million) going to the winner.
The last two seasons were all about the two Lukes (Littler and Humphries), but it’s now more of a case of Littler vs The World. And, by that, we mean that if Littler brings his A-game to the oche, it’s practically impossible for anyone to beat him, not just Humphries.
Of course, this event is about a lot more than just the eventual winner. Only a handful of those 128 players have the ability and experience to actually go all the way. There’s still plenty for everyone to play for, including prize money and ranking points.
That includes Beau Greeves, who took part in the event two years ago, losing in the first round, but she has gained from that experience and is now a much better player than she was two years ago.
She has all the talent but won’t be best pleased about the draw, though, having to face the dangerous Daryl Gurney, a former World Cup winner, in her first match. It doesn’t get any easier after that, with Josh Rock and van Gerwen also in her path.
Betting Tip of the Week: Phil Foden to Score Anytime
An excellent win last week for the column as Mitchell Starc was easily Australia’s top first innings wicket-taker at odds of 3.25 to hand us a really good payout.
We talked about Foden’s recent goalscoring form above. After a slow start to the season, he’s really hit top gear over the past few weeks, clearly enjoying playing in a more central role rather than on the right, as has often been the case in the past.
He’s 3.0 to score anytime, which would be his sixth goal in four games and his fourth in a row; that’s a reasonable price.
