This week, we’re looking at one of the biggest and most famous football clashes in world football as Liverpool host Real Madrid in the Champions League. The first match of a T20I cricket Series between New Zealand and the West Indies, with the countdown to the next World Cup already underway.
New Zealand - West Indies 1st T20I
- Start: Wednesday, November 5, 06:15
- Venue: Auckland, New Zealand
- Coverage: TNT Sports 2
- Fun Fact: New Zealand batsman Mark Chapman is one of the few players in world cricket to have played for two different countries. He first played for Hong Kong in 2014, where he was their big star, before qualifying to play for New Zealand through his father and being called up to the Black Caps for the first time in 2018.
Betting
New Zealand are a strong favourite to win the first match of a five-game T20 Series, and that should come as no surprise.
They’re just 1.36 with Bet365 while the West Indies are 2.88. New Zealand’s Rachin Ravindra to score a fifty is priced at 4.5 at Boylesports, the consistent Jason Holder to be West Indies' top bowler also at 4.5, and for New Zealand to both win the match and have the highest opening partnership - a 2.2 chance.
Back to the match winner market. New Zealand may have lost the recent T20I Series against England 1-0 but that needs to be put into context: only one of the three matches was completed because of rain, and the Kiwis were a bit unlucky that they lost the one match that did have a conclusion to it. They then showed all their knowledge of home conditions and did all the basic rights when they beat England 3-0 in the subsequent ODI Series. Different format, but many of the same players will be involved.
New Zealand are also one of the toughest teams in the world to beat when they’re at home, so you can see why they’re a relatively short price to win this first match.
If you think they’ll win, then the Player of the Match (POTM) market may interest you. In cricket, the POTM comes from the winning side about 95% of the time, so if you think the Black Caps will win, picking a key player for them to be POTM at big odds could be a sound strategy.
Decent candidates include all-action all-rounder Michael Bracewell at 11.0, Zakary Foulkes, who was excellent against England in the last couple of weeks at 17.0, and hard-hitting opener Tim Seifert at 9.0.
Summary
Both teams will already be thinking about the 2026 T20 World Cup, which will be held in India and Sri Lanka next February and March and for which both these teams have already qualified.
Out of interest, the West Indies are actually a shorter price to win the tournament than New Zealand, with Betfred making the Windies 11.0 and the Kiwis 13.0. Whereas it’s true that the latter have a bad habit of making finals and then losing them of late, making finals is something the Windies can only dream of at the moment, hence why it’s a surprise that they’re at shorter odds.
That’s also backed up by the fact that New Zealand are fourth in the ICC T20I Rankings and the West Indies sixth.
New Zealand will, however, have to go into this Series and the World Cup without the run machine that is Kane Williamson. He announced his retirement from T20I cricket over the weekend as he manages a series of ongoing injuries, looks to play in overseas leagues, and gives opportunities to younger players. He will be a hard man to replace.
Liverpool - Real Madrid
- Start: Wednesday, 4 November, 20:00
- Venue: Anfield Stadium, Liverpool
- Coverage: TNT Sports
- Fun Fact: Jude Bellingham and Trent Alexander-Arnold are the sixth and seventh English players to represent Real Madrid, joining Laurie Cunningham, Steve McManaman, David Beckham, Jonathon Woodgate, and Michael Owen on the exclusive list.
Betting
As you'd expect, the betting on the match winner market is tight. Home advantage means Liverpool are 2.5 favourites at Unibet, Real is at 2.55, and the draw is at 3.9, so there’s really not much in it.
As is often the case when these teams, stacked with world-class attacking players, are up against each other, goals are expected. Over 2.5 goals are just 1.42, while even over 3.5 goals are given just under a 50% chance, at odds of 2.05.
And if the goals are going to come, then who might get them? According to Unibet, Kylian Mbappe is the most likely man to get on the scoresheet, available as the 1.88 favourite. He’s also 5.0 to be the first goal scorer. His partner-in-crime Jude Bellingham is a considerably bigger price at 3.6, and that doesn’t look a bad price at all, with the English playmaker now having scored in all of his last three matches.
For Liverpool, Mo Salah and Hugo Ekitike at 2.38 are the shortest prices, though we note the 10.0 that skipper Virgil Van Dijk scores a goal, and he does have a reputation for saving his goals for the biggest games.
In terms of discipline, these aren’t necessarily two of the teams in the competition that receive the most cards, but big games and the pressure that comes with that can make players do unusual things. That may open the door to a bet at 2.1 that there are five or more yellow cards in the game, while it’s 4.6 that a player from either side is sent off.
Summary
This is one of the glamour ties in world football between two of the most successful clubs in the world, both at the domestic and continental level. Over the years, Real have had the better of things, though, winning seven times to Liverpool’s three, while there’s been a draw in there, as well.
Crucially, Real beat Liverpool in both the 2018 and 2022 Champions League finals, and that’s just a further reason why Liverpool will be desperate to win this match; revenge is in the air.
But Real are expected to come a lot closer to winning this year’s Champions League than Liverpool. They’re priced up at 7.5 to go all the way, while Liverpool are out at 26.0. Those odds aren’t a surprise because Real are three from three so far and looking in good form. Liverpool are also in a strong position with two wins and a loss in this competition, but their lacklustre domestic form has been a concern of late.
We’ll have to wait and see how much of a role, if any, Trent Alexander-Arnold has to play in this match. He played at Liverpool for 10 years before making a move to Real this summer on a free transfer, but he has been injured recently and didn’t get off the bench at the weekend.
Betting Tip of the Week
The bookies are predicting plenty of goals in Liverpool against Real Madrid, and we agree with that assessment.
What we don’t necessarily agree with is that Jude Bellingham should be twice the price or more than some of the favourites in the ‘to score’ market.
As stated already, after a bit of a goal drought after recovering from injury, he’s now scored in each of his last three games, something neither Mbappe nor Salah can claim.
The ultimate big-game player, Bellingham looks a good bet at 3.6 to get a goal here.
