If you’re going to open an account at a US-based Sportsbook, you’re highly likely to place some moneyline bets at some stage.
But what does moneyline mean in betting? What do the positive and negative integers mean? How is it similar and different to a points spread bet?
Let’s answer all these questions and round things off with some strategy advice to consider before placing a moneyline bet.
What Is a Moneyline Bet
A good starting point is the moneyline meaning.
A moneyline bet is a betting type placed on the final outcome of a match, such as a football, basketball or baseball match, or another sporting event, such as a UFC or boxing fight.
In Europe such bets are often known as match winner, match odds or 1/2 bets; sometimes also as 1x2 bets, in cases where there’s a draw involved.
But we can’t have a moneyline bet explained without considering the ‘money’ element of it.
In the US, moneyline bets revolve around the positive and negative integers that show the payoffs (money) for betting on a game.
Favourites have negative integers, meaning the integer itself is about how much you’d need to stake to win $100. Underdogs have positive integers where the integer reflects how much you’d win when staking $100.
How Does Moneyline Work
Let’s now consider moneyline odds explained by looking at an American football match.
Remember that in American football, there’s no draw in the odds because if a match is tied after regular time, it goes into overtime until a winner is found. So, in the example below, there are only two moneyline options.
Ahead of the 2024 Superbowl, the San Francisco 49ers were -130, while the Kansas City Chiefs were +110.
You automatically know that the 49ers are favourites because they’re the ones with the negative integer (-130) next to them. The integer tells you how much you need to stake in order to win $100; in this case, it’s $130.
So, if you thought the 49ers, the favourites, were a good bet, you’d have to wager $130 in order to win $100 profit.
You also know the Chiefs are the underdogs because they have the positive integer next to them. So, if you wanted to side with the Chiefs, the slight underdogs, your $100 bet would yield a payout of $110 profit.
So, how does moneyline work? It is the bet where you predict the winner (or that a match will end in a draw where possible), but in American odds and with moneyline odds.
The Favourite
Next up when it comes to moneyline betting explained is knowing the difference between favourites, underdogs and pick’em bets.
The vast majority of sporting events will have a favourite. That’s the team, horse or athlete that the bookie has decided has the best chance of winning based on such factors as recent form and their head-to-head record against that opponent.
When it comes to two-runner moneyline betting, the favourite will always have a negative integer as its price, and you’ll always have to bet more than what you stand to win.
For example, a favourite at -150 means you need to bet $150 on it to win $100.
The Underdog
The underdog is the opposite of the favourite and is the runner in a moneyline market with less chance of winning.
The underdog will always have a positive integer, and whatever that number is, it represents how much you’ll win if you bet $100 on that selection.
For example, if the New York Knicks are +160 in an NBA game, you’d win $160 if you bet $100 on them and they won.
Even or Pick ‘Em
In very rare cases, there isn’t a favourite as such in a moneyline bet.
If two teams were deemed to have an identical chance of winning, it’s possible for them to both be -110 or thereabouts, depending on the house margin at the sports betting site in question.
These are known as even (the odds are the same) or pick’em selections because they’re given the same chance of winning, and you need to pick who you think would win in that equal game. Looking at it another way, you would receive the same amount of money for a winning wager on either side.
How to Calculate Moneyline Payouts
We will explain this through an imaginary example. Let’s say that John and Peter are both planning on betting on an NFL match between the Seattle Seahawks and the Miami Dolphins.
The odds are as follows:
- Seattle Seahawks -130
- Miami Dolphins +110
John places a $130 bet on the Seahawks.
Peter places a $100 bet on the Dolphins.
John’s position
- Seahawks win - $130 @ -130 = $100 profit.
- Seahawks lose - John loses his $130 stake.
Peter’s position
- Dolphins win - $100 @ +110 = $110 profit.
- Dolphins lose - Peter loses his $100 stake.
The Three Types of Outcomes on a Moneyline Bet
Next up when it comes to understanding what does moneyline mean in sports betting, is to consider what the different bet outcomes can be once the bet has been placed and the event’s result is known.
There are generally three possible outcomes.
Win
The most obvious example is when a bettor places a moneyline bet, and the team or player goes on to win.
However, in some sports, such as football or ice hockey, there’s the possibility of a draw if the game is level after regular time. Where that’s the case, the draw is a third runner in the market.
So, you can have a winning moneyline bet by correctly predicting it will end in a draw.
Loss
Backing Team A or Team B on the moneyline and watching them lose the match is going to result in a loss of your own. Of course, if you backed the draw and it didn’t end in a draw, that would be an example of a losing bet, too.
Draw
In some cases, the betting site might decide against offering the draw for whatever reason, even if it’s very much a possibility as an outcome. Draws can happen in the likes of football, ice hockey, rugby or Test match cricket.
Let’s say it’s Arsenal v Man Utd and the bookies’ odds are as follows:
- Arsenal - 150
- Manchester United - +130
If the match ended 1-1 or any other form of draw, it would be unfair for backers of Arsenal or Manchester United to have losing bets when the draw outcome wasn’t offered in the first place.
So, where there are just two outcomes on offer (despite there actually being three in reality), the bet becomes a Draw No Bet wager.
It works like this: if you bet on either side and it’s a draw, it’s a no bet, and you get your stake returned, also known as ‘push’. It’s the equivalent of getting the same score as the Dealer in a game of Blackjack.
Connection to Point Spread betting
Let’s start with the basics: what is a point spread? This type of bet not only considers who wins but by how much in terms of points, goals or runs.
The bookie gives the underdog an artificial start of x number of points, and you win a bet on them if they win, draw, or lose as long as it’s by fewer points than what the spread was. The favourite, on the other hand, needs to not only win but do so by more points than what the spread was.
The analysis and research by bookies when working out moneylines and points spread is exactly the same, they just work in different ways: moneylines change the amount charged for bets on a team, while point spreads change the team scores that would count as a win.
There are two key differences between the two.
The first is that a moneyline can have a third outcome (the draw), while a spread will only ever have two spread lines. The second is that a moneyline is settled based solely on the ‘real’ score in a match, whereas a points spread considers first the actual score, and then applies the spread to it.
Moneyline Betting Strategy
So that’s the moneyline bet meaning explained, but how should you place a good-value moneyline bet?
Take Good Advice, Get the Best Price
If you’re not confident enough to make your own picks, there’s nothing wrong with following tipsters who are proven winners or mirroring the selections of friends with good track records when it comes to moneyline betting.
The next step is to then shop around for the best odds at different bookies where you have accounts, so you maximise your payout if the bet goes on to win.
Find Value Yourself
More experienced bettors can decide for themselves what value bets are by establishing their own moneyline prices, assuming they know enough about the sport, teams and betting to do so.
So, Peter may decide that the Seahawks should be -180 and that the Dolphins should be +160, before looking at the actual odds.
If the odds are very similar to what he thought they should be or worse, it’s probably worth giving it a miss.
But if the Dolphins are +190 rather than the +160 he thought they should be, that’s a value bet. The same would apply if it was the Seahawks who were a bigger price than expected.
