Just a couple of months out from the start of the 2026 World Cup, England remains one of the strong favourites to take home the trophy.
They closed out 2025 with a 90% win ratio and won all eight of their qualifying games without conceding a single goal, becoming the first European team to do so in the eight-match era.
England fans can sing ‘It’s Coming Home’ with a little more confidence at the 2026 World Cup, but how likely is that to actually happen? We’ve crunched the numbers, studied the results and analysed the footage to determine England's chances of winning the 2026 World Cup.
England’s Run in the 2022 World Cup
The last World Cup was middling for England. There were signs of trouble in the Group Stages when a shoddy defence let two in against Iran, and a lack of creativity was a clear problem in the draw against the USA.
Although they made it through to the quarter-finals after topping Group B, it wasn’t the dominant display fans had hoped for. France, the defending champions at the time, stunned Southgate’s side with a comeback in the Quarter-Finals.
England’s only goal came from a Kane penalty, and they failed to show the clinical finishing needed to book a place in the Final.
England’s Progress in the 2022 World Cup:
What’s Changed Since the Last World Cup?
Things have changed considerably for England since their previous outing. At the start of January 2025, manager Gareth Southgate was replaced by Thomas Tuchel. Tuchel has made major team changes, replacing stalwarts from the previous squad such as Maguire, Shaw and Walker.
The new manager isn’t afraid of making the hard choices. While Southgate might have wanted to keep the big names on side, Tuchel will drop anyone who doesn’t fit his vision.
Bellingham found that out after being dropped from the side just 48 hours after being voted England’s best player in 2024-25.
Tuchel is here to win, and he’s not afraid to ruffle a few feathers in the process.
A Promising Display at the 2024 Euros
England’s performance at the 2024 Euros may have broken fans' hearts at the last minute, but it showed they can go the distance in a tournament.
After topping their group, England made it through to the Quarter-Final where they narrowly beat Switzerland on penalties. They took them through to the Semi-Final where they beat the Netherlands 2-1 after a late goal by Ollie Watkins.
In the Final, England were outclassed by Spain, who ended up beating them 2-1 to win the 2024 Euros. It was the second time in a row England made it to the Final and left the nation with high hopes for the World Cup.
How Good Was England at the Euros?
It may be that the haze of those days, when we could sing ‘It’s Coming Home’ with tangible belief, has clouded the memory.
England’s 2024 Euro run was in no way faultless, and they only won one of their three games in their group, 2-1 against Slovakia. The rest of their games were draws: 1-1 against Denmark and 0-0 against Slovenia.
If England were in four of the other groups, they wouldn’t have topped the table with that record. In fact, there were six teams that performed better in the group stage.
Faultless in Qualifying
What we can really get behind is England’s perfect run in World Cup qualifying, a remarkable achievement we referenced earlier. They won all eight of their games, scoring 22 goals without conceding a single one.
Kane was sharp as ever, scoring eight goals, which is double what the group’s second-highest scorer netted.
It continues England’s winning run in World Cup qualifying, since they were last beaten by Ukraine 1-0 in 2009. Tuchel’s England closed out the year with the highest win percentage (90%) since 1946, and their third highest ever. It was pretty much the perfect pre-tournament year.
When we look at all that, the chances of England winning the World Cup seem quite good at this point, especially if everyone stays healthy for the tournament.
Who Is Likely to Feature in the England Line-Up?
The squad doesn’t have to be finalised until the start of June, but we can peer into the crystal ball to see who is and who isn’t likely to feature.
Younger players, such as Lewis-Skelley and Madueke, have found favour under the new England manager as he tests the waters before his selection. Players reaching the end of their international career, or who Tuchel doesn’t see fitting his vision, have been left on the sidelines.
Here’s our breakdown of the players who’ve found or fallen out of favour in Tuchel’s England World Cup squad.
A Relatively Straightforward Group?
England, drawn into Group L, will face Ghana, Panama, and Croatia.
If England are the contenders that many consider them to be, then they should be cruising through Group L. Although Croatia beat England in the 2018 semi-finals, this time around, they’re an ageing team. It will be Luka Modrić’s fifth World Cup at age 40 and Perišić’s fourth at 37.
Ghana may once have posed a problem for England, but that might not be the case anymore. Despite talented players like Kudus and Semenyo, they failed to qualify for AFCON 2026 for the first time since 2004. They’ve even slipped down to 72nd in the FIFA rankings.
Panama shouldn’t pose a problem either. Sitting at rank 30th in the world, they haven’t featured at a World Cup since 2018, where they finished last in their group after losing all three games.
How do we feel about England’s draw? Well, cautious optimism is the overriding sentiment. The teams they face in the group stage are teams England should easily see off.
Who Could Be England’s Biggest Competition?
England will likely enter as the second favourite behind Spain. La Roja look the most likely to take home the trophy, having won the 2024-25 Nations League and a record fourth European Championship in 2024.
Right now, the outright odds on England winning the World Cup sit firmly between 6.5 and 7, slightly higher than Spain's at around 5.5.
This is England’s main competition, according to bookmakers:
- Spain
- France
- Argentina
Let’s take a closer look at England’s biggest competitors at the World Cup.
A Second Spanish Golden Age
We’d say we’re well and truly entering a second Spanish golden age. La Roja have gone undefeated in 31 matches in open play. You have to travel all the way back to March 2023 for their last loss, a 2-0 shock defeat to Scotland.
Their current squad reads more like a shopping list of football’s top talent. Spain boasts at least seven regular first-team Barcelona players, including wonder kid Lamine Yamal.
The winger is leading assists in La Liga, a competition he’s already won twice, at just 18 years of age. He’ll certainly be a talent to keep your eye on at the 2026 World Cup.
Let’s take a look at the talent England could face if they face Spain:
One thing you’ll notice from our table is that seven Spanish players also feature for Barcelona, meaning a sizable portion of the national team trains and plays together week in, week out.
That gives La Roja a level of cohesion and understanding that other teams can’t match. Could that be Spain’s secret weapon come the 2026 World Cup?
A Third Consecutive World Cup Final for France?
France has been the dominant team in the last few World Cups, claiming the crown in 2018 and losing to Argentina in the 2022 final. The Les Bleus squad is brimming with talent, and they’ll be hoping to make a third Final on the bounce. And they just might…
With some of football’s top talent, including the 2025 Ballon d’Or winner and FIFA 2025 Best Player, Ousmane Dembélé in attack, you wouldn’t put it past them.
There’s no doubt that France will be stiff competition for England, but they haven’t been without fault in the lead-up to the tournament.
Matches they failed to win:
- March 2025 – Lost 2-0 to Croatia in the Nations League
- June 2025 – Lost 5-4 to Spain in the Nations League
- October 2025 – Drew 2-2 with Iceland in World Cup Qualifiers
Another for Argentina?
The current holders of the World Cup will be looking to retain it in 2026, a feat achieved only twice before (Brazil in 1962 and Italy in 1938). While you can never write off Argentina, we think the trophy is more likely to travel to Europe.
Argentina weren’t completely convincing in their qualification matches, losing to Uruguay, Colombia, Paraguay and Ecuador, and drawing with Colombia and Venezuela. Yet, they still topped the South American qualifiers with 38 points to Ecuador’s 29.
Lionel Messi, their talisman, is not yet confirmed for what would be his sixth World Cup. Should he play, he would extend his record for the most World Cup matches, which currently sits at 26.
Matches they failed to win:
- September 2024 – Lost to Colombia 2-1 in World Cup Qualifying
- October 2024 – Drew with Venezuela 1-1 in World Cup Qualifying
- November 2024 – Lost 2-1 to Paraguay in World Cup Qualifying
- June 2025 – Drew 1-1 with Colombia in World Cup Qualifying
- September 2025 – Lost 1-0 to Ecuador in World Cup Qualifying
So, Could 2026 Be England’s Year?
The 2026 World Cup will mark exactly 60 years since England last raised the trophy, and with fans hungrier than ever, could it happen? Well, this time it really could.
We can’t see them faltering in the Group Stages and expect them to sail through. The knockout stages are where things usually get shaky, but the boosted depth of the squad and Tuchel’s confidence to make the hard decisions should see England through.
The new seeding system means England are unlikely to meet Spain until the final, and we’d back them to make it there.
At that point, we might find ourselves with a repeat of the 2024 Euro final on our hands. Overcoming Spain would be a tricky task, but England is in better shape to do so than two years ago.
If luck’s on their side, Kane is firing away, and Tuchel manages to keep the defence leakproof, England stand a very good chance of 2026 being their year.
