Climate change is a global issue, but it poses a significant threat to US sports, affecting players and fans alike as they face the growing impact of increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
In the summer of 2025, weather forecasts across North America continue to reflect a troubling pattern driven by global warming, with extreme conditions expected to persist. This ongoing disruption poses a serious threat to the viewership and scheduling of U.S. sports.
Technology Is Key for the Future of US Sport
Sports fans already have a rocky relationship with the weather. According to YouGov, only 2% of US sports fans would be willing to attend outdoor stadium events in below-0°F temperatures, with 23% stating they'd never attend in cold weather at all.
More importantly, extreme weather and the broader impacts of climate change pose serious risks to both athlete and fan safety, threatening the future of professional, amateur, and recreational sports across the U.S. For example, research at venues like Davis Wade Stadium in Mississippi shows that thermal stress during hot-weather games accounts for up to two-thirds of all heat-related first-aid incidents.
However, in recent years, the push for research, education and technological advancements in US sports stadiums has improved and allowed for competitions, teams, players, and fans to combat the effects of climate change.
As a result, stadiums across the US are increasingly developing and implementing retractable roofs, advanced drainage systems, and specialised cooling technologies. The rise of the LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) movement has also gained momentum among American sports venues. To date, 14 stadiums have earned LEED certification for their commitment to sustainable construction, use of renewable energy, recycling initiatives, and educational programs aimed at combating the effects of climate change.
But weather-related disruption will never disappear, with concerns already being raised ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the Olympics in Los Angeles in 2028. The 2025 Club World Cup has also been marred by extreme weather conditions, with Borussia Dortmund’s substitutes forced to sit inside, heavy rain and lightning strikes forcing fixtures to be delayed and suspended, and some clubs training in areas with ‘code red’ warnings for extreme heat.
In light of the potential increase in extreme weather patterns in the US, we conducted research into the risks climate change poses to some of America’s most popular sports, if redevelopment efforts fail to take place in the coming years, and mapped out when each of North America’s most iconic sports could technically become unplayable.
About the Data
To do this, we used future climate projections to estimate how often games could be cancelled as weather patterns change through the end of this century and beyond. This included using the CMIP6 SSP3-7.0 “business-as-usual” emissions scenario via the Copernicus Climate Data Store.
By mapping professional stadium locations across the US, we pulled high-resolution weather projections from 2025 to 2100 and calculated how often conditions could exceed cancellation thresholds for each sport, with all data filtered by the relevant playing season.
The MLB Could Be en Route to Extinction by 2165
Due to climate change, Major League Baseball (MLB) could begin experiencing significant game cancellations as early as 2165.
The data shows that by 2165, up to half of all MLB games could be cancelled due to problems caused by the weather, rising to the point where all 2,430 games in a full season may be unplayable by 2353.
When analysing all stadiums within the competition, nearly half (46.67%) of all MLB stadiums were deemed most at risk from a rise in freezing conditions in future seasons.
The MLB’s 30 teams are acutely aware of the need to make stadiums more resistant and resilient to the effects of climate change, after the Tampa Bay Rays’ stadium was damaged so severely by Hurricane Milton in October that they were forced to move their 81-game home schedule for 2025 to Steinbrenner Field.
However, hot weather is still looking likely to disrupt some MLB teams' seasons.
The importance of retractable roofs for this future hazard is best evidenced through the Arizona Diamondbacks, who were at risk of having half their home games cancelled this year due to the effects of hot weather.
Additionally, if Globe Life Field didn’t have a retractable roof, the Texas Rangers would have become the first MLB team to have all of their home games cancelled due to climate change and the rise in hot weather by the year 2167, followed by the Diamondbacks in 2175 and the Houston Astros in 2193.
Teams without roofs and an infrastructure which can withstand the forecasted climate impact, like the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers, are currently both at risk of being the worst-affected teams by the consequences of climate change. The Cardinals are projected to have half of their home games cancelled due to complications caused by hot weather by 2088; meanwhile, the Dodgers will face a similar issue by 2093.
The Cardinals would also become the first MLB side to have all of their games cancelled by 2210, followed by the Dodgers in 2221. In contrast, the Chicago White Sox will have all of their games cancelled by 2271 due to cold weather conditions.
The NFL Could Become Unplayable by 2296
The NFL faces a similar threat from extreme weather as a result of climate change, with the recent 2024 season having offered a concerning glimpse into the emerging dangers of future projects. With just one-third (10) of NFL teams currently having a retractable roof or dome to protect them from harsh weather, the majority of teams are susceptible to the effects of climate change.
Climate change has become an issue over the last year within the NFL, with October’s fixture between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals seeing temperatures peaking at a staggering 98 degrees, and January’s Chiefs-Dolphins clash took place in -4 degrees with a -23 wind chill.
The Los Angeles Rams were also forced to move their 2024 playoff game 300 miles away earlier this year, as wildfires caused by extreme heat meant the game had to be moved from LA to Arizona.
With January 2025 proving to be the warmest on record across the states, our research supports current trends, with data highlighting that heavy rain and a rise in hot weather will both pose the biggest threat to the majority of NFL stadiums within the league in years to come.
Although still a while away, the research projects that climate change will put 136 games (50%) at risk of cancellation by the year 2296, with the NFL currently facing the threat of its last season being in 2582.
The adoption of climate-resilient features like retractable roofs has helped shield the Arizona Cardinals from the worst impacts of climate change.
Without its multi-purpose retractable roof, Arizona Cardinals’ State Farm Stadium could already have seen half of its home games cancelled this year due to hot weather, with full-season cancellations projected by 2175. Close behind are the Dallas Cowboys, expected to have over half of their games cancelled by 2189, followed by the Houston Texans in 2224, with both teams facing the same issues with hot weather.
Based on future projections, the year when all the Arizona Cardinals' games could be cancelled by hot weather is in 2358, making them the first team to be impacted by the effects of climate change. Again, these are followed by the Dallas Cowboys, who could have all of their games cancelled by 2385 & Las Vegas Raiders by 2433. Both of which will be impacted by hot weather.
However, stadiums without these facilities face a bigger problem. Based on the study, the San Francisco 49ers are currently the most at risk from climate change, with the Levi’s Stadium projected to have half of its fixtures cancelled by 2225, and all matches called off by 2444 as a result of a rise in hot weather.
The data also shows that the New York Jets and Giants as the second-worst stadium to be impacted by climate change, with half of their games predicted to be cancelled by 2248 due to very heavy rain & Kansas City Chiefs are the third worst team with all cancellations expected to happen in 2249, again due to issues with hot weather.
The MLS is on Track for Extinction by 2191
Soccer is also another sport that could be threatened by climate change, with the inaugural FIFA Club World Cup having been impacted by a range of extreme weather issues, including heat, thunderstorms, lightning strikes and flash flooding.
Hot weather is the biggest risk to MLS’s long-term future in the United States, with 57.14% of the league’s stadiums expected to be most affected by this.
The study also found that half of the fixtures in the MLS could face cancellation by 2191 due to different elements of climate change, including flooding, very heavy rain and hot weather, with the league at risk of complete extinction by 2379 if special measures are not put in place.
Without modern innovation, FC Dallas, Houston Dynamo and Sporting Kansas City are currently the most vulnerable stadiums at risk from climate change, with hot weather proving the most damaging to these stadiums.
Data suggests that without a retractable roof, the Toyota Stadium, home of FC Dallas, would be the first team to be unable to host 50% of its home games by 2092. This is followed by half of the games potentially being cancelled at Houston Dynamo FC in 2130 & then Sporting Kansas City in 2134.
Further analysis shows that by 2256, all of FC Dallas’ games could be cancelled due to climate change, making them the first team impacted in the league to this degree. Coming in second is the Houston Dynamo FC in 2257 & St. Louis City in 2283.
Pebble Beach Is the First Golf Course at Risk
A new study reveals that 70% of U.S. golf courses used in major events like the U.S. Open, The Masters, and the PGA Tour are at risk from the increasing impact of heavy rainfall.
By 2171, half of all tournaments at these venues are expected to be unplayable, and by 2391, flagship competitions such as the U.S. Open, The Masters, and the PGA Tour could become entirely unplayable on American soil.
However, in the short term, drought is a big issue for some of the most iconic courses.
Courses like Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, and Riviera Country Club are facing immediate disruption, with droughts caused by extreme weather expected to force the cancellation of half their scheduled events within the next five years.
Pebble Beach is the most at-risk, with 52% of its games projected to be cancelled by 2028, followed by Torrey Pines in 2029 and L.A.’s Riviera course in 2030.
Looking further ahead, by 2195, the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, is expected to become the first course to face total cancellation of all tournaments due to hot weather rendering it unplayable for future PGA Tour events. TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) will follow with 100% cancellations expected by 2206 due to heavy rainfall, and Southern Hills Country Club by 2224, again due to hot weather.
Climate Change Could Cancel Half of US Tennis Matches
By 2092, up to half of all tennis matches in the U.S. could face cancellation due to weather-related issues.
We’re already seeing the warning signs. In 2024, the US Open in New York—one of the sport’s most prestigious tournaments—was disrupted not by rain, but by blistering heat, with retractable roofs deployed to shield players, officials, and fans from dangerous temperatures instead of the usual downpours.
Now, new research from the study reveals that 85% of U.S. tennis venues are vulnerable to weather-related disruptions, with increased rainfall being the main problem for tennis venues.
According to the data, the Lindner Family Tennis Centre, home of the Cincinnati Open, is flagged as the venue most at risk to be impacted first from weather-related cancellations next year (2026). This is closely followed by the Atlanta Open Stadium (Atlantic Station Court) in 2033 & the LTP Tennis Club at Daniel Island by 2079.
Looking further ahead, by 2229, the River Oaks Country Club may face total shutdown, with 100% of its matches projected to be unplayable, making it the first venue at risk of complete cancellation due to climate impacts.
What Can Be Done to Better Mitigate These Risks?
Our findings highlight that outdoor sport within the US is most heavily threatened by the large volume and unpredictability of rain.
Hot and cold temperatures pose a large risk to the safety of athletes, staff, and spectators. Infrastructure is also threatened, due to the potential for structural shifts as a result of freeze-thaw damage in the cold, or the softening of key materials from direct sunlight in the heat.
Venue redevelopment, continued technological innovation, and raising awareness will be essential to securing a long-term future for outdoor sports within the US, with an emphasis on energy efficiency, carbon reduction, sustainability, and creating a safe player and fan experience.
Retractable roofs, natural ventilation, heat-resistant playing surfaces, solar-powered energy, cooling techniques, water recycling systems and vertical gardens are just a handful of areas that will require ongoing development.
The dangers of flash flooding, lightning strikes, sudden storms and potential wildfires are something which is already impacting US sport, and causing some concern amongst organisations ahead of upcoming sporting events, and as evidenced by our research, these concerns are only going to become more prevalent in the future.
Methodology
This study set out to forecast when major sports in the US and UK may become unplayable due to climate change, using future climate projections. Our goal was to model how many games may need to be postponed or cancelled over time, based on predicted changes in weather patterns through the end of the 21st century and beyond.
To get the data, we used the CMIP6 SSP3-7.0 scenario from the Copernicus Climate Data Store API (CDSAPI) to access high-resolution weather projections.
Using the coordinates of professional stadiums and grounds across the U.S. and UK, we retrieved monthly and daily weather predictions from 2025 to 2100. For each sport and location, we calculated the number of days per month where weather is projected to exceed the cancellation thresholds, and from that, the % chance of any day in the month having conditions which could cause a cancellation. Predicted wind speed at the exact location of the stadium was not always available. In this case, the nearest available point was used.
To ensure accuracy, we filtered all results to the relevant season for each sport, based on the typical months of scheduled professional competition. For example, cricket was assessed only from April to September, while the NFL was limited to January–February and September–December.
For scenarios extending beyond 2100, we assumed that climate trends would continue in a linear fashion based on the observed rate of change from 2025–2100. While simplified, this approach allows for speculative but structured long-term forecasting. Using these forecasts for each sport, team, and stadium, we predicted the years by which 50%, 75%, and 100% of games per season would be at risk of cancellation if played outdoors without climate mitigation (e.g. domes, artificial turf, seasonal shifts).
The sports considered were Football / Soccer, Cricket, NFL, Baseball, Golf, Tennis, F1, and NASCAR.
