Gut Instincts: Don't Trust Your Gut

The UK is one of the world’s leading markets for sports betting, with the industry valued at an estimated £4 billion. With around 5-6% of UK punters placing regular bets, there is a diverse array of betting strategies. Yet, amidst this variety, one particularly questionable tactic stands out: relying on gut instinct.

According to third-party sources, 6 in 10 UK bettors trust their gut in everyday life when making decisions—choosing intuition over analytical reasoning or research. 

And based on our recent Censuswide survey of 1,000 regular UK sports bettors, 59.48% of these note that they are confident when trusting their gut.

It was Britain’s irrational trust in their intuition that inspired our latest campaign, "Gut Instincts", which encourages bettors to challenge this approach and adopt more informed, data-driven strategies. 

The goal? To help bettors understand the risks of betting on intuition alone and inspire them to make smarter, more reliable choices.

Gut Feelings vs. Analytical Reasoning

Just How Many UK Punters Bet Based on Their Gut?

Our analysis reveals that 54.49% of UK bettors regularly trust their gut instincts when placing sports bets. Notably, women are more inclined to rely on intuition than men, with 57.48% of female bettors preferring gut feelings over data, compared to 52.66% of their male counterparts.

Among different age groups, Millennials and Generation Y (ages 28-34) are the most likely to bet based on intuition, with 55.13% preferring this method. In contrast, the Silent Generation (ages 79+) is the least likely to follow their gut, at 50%. 

With at least half of all age groups trusting their intuition when it comes to betting, you can see why we needed to campaign about it.

Our research below shows the main cities in the UK that follow their gut instincts the most when betting on sports.

But Just How Many Bettors Regret Trusting Their Gut?

A third (32%) of British punters often regret trusting their instincts—men (33.98%) more so than women (29.40%). In fact, we can reveal that if you’re a man aged 28-44, live in Bristol and commonly bet on tennis, you have the highest probability of being let down by your instincts. 

Worryingly, 7% of betting Brits never regret making choices based on their gut. The reasoning? We’re placing our own bets on there being a high probability of Great British denial. 

Let’s Talk Learnings

Do Intuitive Bettors Learn from Their Mistakes?

​​Over two-thirds of British bettors (64.67%) who regularly rely on their intuition admitted that making a calculated bet allows them to make better decisions than betting based on a “feeling”. There were only 9.18% who disagreed with this. 

Men (65.54%) are slightly more likely than women (63.25%) to acknowledge that research made them better bettors, along with punters aged 28-44, those betting on basketball, and people living in Cardiff. 

The Silent Generation (25%) and people from Southampton (54%) were the least likely to admit that researched betting led to better decision-making.

Would Seasoned Punters Advise First-Time Bettors Against Relying on Gut Instincts?

Concerningly, 16.87% believe there’s no problem with first-time bettors relying on their instincts for decision-making. Fortunately, the majori­ty—­54.0­9%­—advise against this approach, suggesting that new bettors should avoid depending solely on gut feelings. Additionally, 70% recommend that novices conduct more thorough research before placing bets.

Despite this, 6.99% of UK bettors still encourage first-timers to stick with their gut instincts rather than research. This still equates to a staggering 234,395 British bettors.

Further key findings:

• 69% of cricket fans would advise betting novices to trust research over gut feeling. 
• Football fans are the most likely to encourage first-time bettors to do more extensive research when betting on sport (73%).

Gut-instincts: The UK Punter’s Understanding of Risk

Do Intuitive Bettors Recognise the Risk of Intuitive Betting?

After consistently betting based on intuition, 62.97% of UK bettors recognise that initial success with gut feelings often leads to a "slippery slope" toward greater betting risks. Additionally, 73.35% acknowledge that relying on intuition is riskier than employing data-driven methods. Generation Z stands out as the most aware of this, with 78.71% recognising the heightened risks of betting based on gut instincts.

Despite this awareness, it’s important to note that nearly a quarter of British sports bettors still do not view intuition-based betting as more dangerous than more calculated approaches.

Further key findings:

• Cardiff-based bettors lead in advocating for research over gut instinct, with 85.19% of them encouraging first-time bettors to conduct extensive research before betting on sports.
• UK football bettors (72.52%) are among the highest groups recommending research to first-time bettors, possibly due to poor outcomes from relying solely on gut feelings.
• Edinburgh bettors have the highest awareness (75.86%) that early success with gut-based betting can be risky, indicating a strong recognition of its potential to lead to losses.
• Millennials and Generation Y (72.32%) are the most likely to encourage first-time bettors to research rather than rely on instincts, suggesting they've learned from their own experiences.

Do Bettors Using Their Instincts Continue to Do So Even After Losses?

Our study reveals that just over half of UK bettors will stop trusting their gut after a poor result. However, 1 in 5 admitted that a disappointing outcome won’t shake their faith in their instincts.

Our analysis further suggests that the older you are, the more likely you are to be set in your ways, with half of The Silent Generation (50%) telling us that even poor results won’t change their tactics. 

Further key findings:

• Generation Z (58.91%) learn the most from their mistakes, being less likely to listen to their gut. after a loss or bad result.
• Female bettors (56.17%) are less likely than men (51.05%) to listen to their gut after experiencing a loss or bad result.
• Punters in Belfast are most likely to still rely on gut feeling after bad results (40%).
• UK bettors betting on tennis (62.96%) are the least likely to revert back to betting on instinct after a loss.

Are Bettors Who Rely on Their Instincts Aware of the Potential Financial Risks They Face?

A staggering 84.43% of UK bettors recognise the financial risks associated with relying on gut feelings or intuition when placing bets, with only 2.40% considering themselves unaware of these risks. 

Notably, Generation X stands out, with 86.78% acknowledging the potential financial pitfalls. Despite this awareness, 59.38% continue to rely on their instincts, even when concerned about the outcome. Only a fracti­on—­18.8­6%­—choose to adopt a different, more cautious approach.

Further key findings:

• ​​Generation Z (67.33%) is the most likely to continue following their gut feelings when betting despite worrying about the outcome, while Baby Boomers (33.02%) are the least likely to do so. 
• Women (60.37%) are more likely than men (58.78%) to continue following their gut feelings when betting, even when they’re aware of the financial risks.
• UK tennis bettors (88.89%) show the highest awareness of financial risks from intuition-based betting. However, they are also the most likely (74.07%) to continue gut-based betting despite worrying about the outcome.
• Bettors based in Norwich (75.00%) and Greater London (66.84%) are the most likely to still follow their gut feelings, even when they recognise the risk. 

The Gut Instinct Success Rate

Do Bettors Believe Their Success Rate Is Better With Gut-Instinct Betting or Research-Driven Betting?

Despite the results of the study, terrifyingly, over a third of UK bettors —36.33%—still believe that their instincts yield better results than relying on data and analysis, with over half confident in the accuracy of their gut feeling when betting. Our research also shows that scousers are the most confident in the accuracy of their gut feeling or instincts when betting.

In contrast, only a quarter of Brits think that following their gut leads to fewer wins.

Bojana Djordjevic, Head of Editorial Content at AskGamblers, gives a suggested reasoning for this:

 The appealing thing about instinctive betting is that it feels personal. Think of people using their loved ones’ birthday date in the lottery—the emotional weight tied to these choices makes any win difficult to forget. It is this connection that often fosters an unrealistic loyalty to gut feelings.

Which Sport Has the Worst Success Rate for Intuitive Bettors?

Bettors who relied on intuition for football bets had the lowest success rates, with 63.67% reporting that football is the sport where gut-based betting proves least effective.

Let’s have a further look at our analysis broken down by sport:

Football

• Men struggle more with football bets based on gut instincts compared to women. 66.51% of men say football is the sport they’ve had the least success with, versus 59.06% of women.
• Millennials and Generation Y, face the biggest challenge with football bets driven by intuition, with 67.41% saying their bets have led to failure.
• Bettors in Yorkshire & the Humber have the toughest time with football bets based on gut feelings, with 78.67% experiencing a lack of success.
• Leeds bettors have an even steeper hill to climb, with a striking 80.77% believing that their gut-based football bets are rarely successful. 

Horse racing

• Women experience slightly less success with horse racing bets based on gut feelings, with 47.51% reportedly claiming a low success rate.
• Baby Boomers face the toughest odds with horse racing bets driven by intuition, with more than half (52.83%) not having successful outcomes.
• In Northern Ireland, bettors find themselves in the most challenging spot with horse racing bets based on gut instincts, as a significant 70.00% report poor results.
• Belfast bettors are particularly unlucky when betting on horse racing using gut feelings, with a striking 70.00% experiencing lower success rates.

Boxing

• Men struggle more with boxing bets based on gut instincts than women, with 23.67% of male UK sports bettors being unsuccessful when following this method
• Generation Z faces the greatest challenge with boxing bets driven by gut feelings, with a notable 37.13% not seeing wins.
• Bettors in the North East find themselves hitting the toughest odds with boxing bets based on intuition, with 29.03% experiencing unsuccessful results.
• In Newcastle, the odds are also grim for those betting on boxing with gut instincts, as 29.31% had the low success rates.

Tennis

• Men find less success with tennis bets based on gut instincts (22.06%), compared to 20.47% of women.
• Millennials and Generation Y face the steepest challenge with tennis bets driven by gut feelings, with 28.35% reporting no success.
• Bettors in Yorkshire & the Humber face the most difficult odds regionally with tennis bets based on intuition, with 29.33% reporting a lack of success.
• Bristol is the worst city for gut-based tennis bets. A third (35.90%) of Bristolian bettors had the lowest amount of success when betting on tennis with gut instincts.

Rugby

• Men struggle more than women with rugby bets based on gut instincts, with just 14.33% having the least success compared to 12.86% of women.
• Generation Z faces the toughest odds with rugby bets driven by gut feelings, with 17.82% having the least success. 
• Bettors in Greater London struggle most regionally with rugby bets based on intuition, with 20.53% having the least success.
• In Bristol, the challenge is similarly tough, with only 20.51% of bettors experiencing the least when betting on rugby with gut instincts.

Our Final Bit of Advice

Betting using your gut instincts or intuition is inherently unpredictable, biased, and ultimately unreliable. Relying on intuition for sports betting can be both financially and emotionally draining, often resulting in more harm than gain. The risks far outweigh the rewards, as gut-based betting frequently leads bettors astray.

To mitigate the risks associated with intuition-based betting, it's crucial to adopt a more analytical approach. Here’s our tips on the most effective way to bet: 

• Conduct your research: Research players, horses, teams, and historical data. Understanding who and what you’re betting on, along with current trends, can give you valuable insight and improve your chance of winning.
• Use statistical tools: Use statistical tools and betting models that analyse past performance and predict future outcomes.
• Consult experts: Consider consulting betting experts or joining betting communities where you can exchange insights and strategies. 
• Be pro-rationality: Irrational choices usually lead to losses. Keep records of your bets and why you chose these decisions. If you can’t justify it, it’s time to take a break. 
• Set limits: Establish clear betting limits and stick to them. Avoid chasing losses or increasing bets based on a feeling that "things will turn around." Once again, if your gut says that a win is just around the corner, ignore it. Your intuition can be a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

By shifting from gut instinct to a more analytical and research-based approach, you can enhance your chances of success and make more informed, rational decisions. 

Methodology:

AskGamblers conducted a Censuswide survey of 1000 participants who ‘regularly’ bet on sport (any sport – any amount). It included respondents who admit to betting on their ‘gut instincts’ before (based on an intuitive feeling or hunch, rather than replying on data or research) and it was conducted in September 2024.