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    JohhnySack

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    1.    sitpicks reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    2.    RodeoPoker1 reacted to a post in a topic: Any sportsbettors/punters/tipsters here at AG ?
    3. JohhnySack
      Norwegian cup on Wednesday night. Sogndal to beat Honefoss at around 1.5 is great value. The away team is sending lots of youth players to the game and even though the market is on its way down it's still good value.
    4. JohhnySack
      Marathonbet or bet365 are the fastest ones at least in medium to big bets. All bookies have some delayes when it comes to livebetting.
    5.    Luciana reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    6. JohhnySack
      paquito76: Yes it`s harder to get the facts rights when it comes to the lower leagues around the world. Hence the expression " on your own" cos pretty much nobody cares whats going on in smaller leagues in most countries. If if someone would be ambitious/insane enough to read up all there is to know about a league just for betting purposes, I would on the other hand recomend learning about a league that very few other people know anything about. Players are seldom professionals and their perfermances varies more than the elite of course. Media are not there to arrest you either so most matches are easily forgotten. But strange outcomes/ unpredictable matches are more often than not a good thing, in my humble opinion. Depending if your betting the favorites or the underdogs of course.. Awena: I`m not too sure it`s a good idea to go against the Germans this week to be honest. Except from that I have no idea what yourè talking about
    7.    Awena reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    8.    Toiletseat reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    9. JohhnySack
      Cheers, glad to hear that! "calculate a team's actual situation into odds". Sory to say there are no shortcuts on the way doing so. It`s a very complex worktask to put "accurate" probabilities on a match/event. Even more so when it comes to most teamsports with a 3 way outcome.( Home-Draw-Away). But anyway the math is the same no matter how many possible outcomes a event has. If you make a bet with a friend who of you will run fastest for example and you think you gonna outrun him 70 out of a 100 times=70% your odds: 100/70=1,43 his odds: 100/30=3,33 Given that you have to run till one of you win and draw is not an option If you have the odds but want to know the procent: 100/odds=%
    10.    Toiletseat reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    11.    Toiletseat reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    12.    Toiletseat reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    13.    Toiletseat reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    14.    JohhnySack reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    15. JohhnySack
      Sorry for so many posts in a row, that was the only way to post the whole of my reply, since I kept receiving a message that a cannot post links before being a registered member for 7 days, although my text didn't include any link..
    16. JohhnySack
      But if the topscorer in some Iceland 2 division team broke his leg trying to ride his bike pissed drunk home from the pub the day before matchday, that could happen without any bookmakers even knowing it ever happend. Except from trying to beat the market all by yourself, comparing bookmakers is a pretty safe ( and much easier) way of finding decent bets. Lets say that you have for example 10 big bookmakers who have about 97% payback on a match. If 9/10 of them says that your dear Holland are gonna beat Serbia 3/4 times at home and the last one says they will only win the match 2/4 you are pretty much always"ahead" before trying to double your money at the last one. ValDes: That`s questions for another day and a completley different topic
    17. JohhnySack
      Because of the competition more and more bookmakers have to offers odds on lower leagues. This isn`t something they want to do but to keep up in a growing demanding market operators offers players more and more betting options. This is good news for the players since the bookmakers have alot more work in front of them every week. To put it all in a very black and white texture: Even most grandmothers would know if Messi was about to lose out on the world cup final because of a injury.
    18. JohhnySack
      But if you want to try to beat the bookies on your own I would suggest you focus on the smaller leagues. The bigger the league the more bets will be played on it. The more money the more on guard bookmakers will have to be. For example players would really hurt a bookmaker if they kept on giving the wrong odds on the higher levels such as Premier League, La Liga etc eventhough it happends from time to time
    19. JohhnySack
      Thanks for your kind welcomes boys and girls! Thanks for your kind welcomes boys and girls! I`m afraid my answers might come at strange times since my day rhythm is pretty shabby at best Toiletseat: Let`s use football as a example since I assume that`s what you are refering to. It`s very hard to determine if a bet offers value or not. More often than not you need as much or more knowledge/insight about a match than the bookmakers themself deteminating this and that`s easier said than done. Personaly if I have been paying close attention to a league I don`t check the market odds before I make up my own mind where about I think the betting odds should be. If the market differ alot from this I go further. H2H history doesn`t quite give the whole picture when it comes to football since the matches are so far between (twice a year) and teams/matchups changes alot during one season to the other. Watching most the matches in a league, paying attention to teams form, looking out for injuries and trying to picture how teams stands to each other would be more important I`m afraid. Sadly it`s a ***** of a lot of work watching all matches in a league and more often than not it seems like a full time job..
    20.    JohhnySack reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    21.    JohhnySack reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    22.    JohhnySack reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    23.    cocopop3011 reacted to a post in a topic: Poker and Sportsbook questions and answers
    24. JohhnySack
      Hi folks I was asked by the forum queen Luciana to write something on the forum and I couldn`t find it in my heart to let her down. Even though she is a lovely girl she doesn`t know s**t about either poker or sportsbetting so I agreed to help her out First of I`ve been playing poker/sportsbetting for a living( in that order) for about 15 years and would gladly help you guys out if you have any questions about either of the two. Been reading a few of the latest treads on the forum but since I can`t seem to get a clear picture of what you want to know exactly I think it would be easier to just start over. Would also try to post sportbets when certain bookmakers/casinos are out of line or quite simple if I find sportsbets to be of any value. If that would be of any interest to you guys at all So in other words bring on questions( since I have no clue what you already know and what you want to know more about) and I`ll answer them as best I can!
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